The Crypto Market in Russia: Three Challenges for the Moscow Exchange on the Path to Legalization — $650M/Day Turnover, the Dollar’s Return, and Stablecoins

Will the Crypto Market Be Shaken Up in a New Way? Three Challenges for the Moscow Exchange on the Path to Legal Crypto Operations

February 2026 became a turning point for the Russian financial market in two directions at once. Firstly, the Russian Ministry of Finance officially announced astronomical figures: the daily turnover of cryptocurrencies in the country reached 50 billion rubles (about $650 million), and the annual volume exceeds 10 trillion rubles ($130.5 billion). Millions of Russians are involved in these transactions.

Secondly, on February 16, 2026, the Moscow Exchange (MOEX), for the first time since June 2024, resumed exchange trading in the US dollar — the USDRUB_TOM currency pair in the anonymous CETS mode. This return of the dollar to organized trading (albeit in a modified form, without physical delivery) creates a fundamentally new context for the launch of the crypto platform that MOEX and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation plan to open in the summer of 2026.

However, between ambition and implementation lies a chasm of three fundamental questions. The answers to them will determine whether the new exchange becomes a breakthrough that brings the market out of the shadows, or just another “talking shop” that investors will ignore, remaining in the familiar grey zone.

In this material, we have collected current data from open sources, expert opinions, international analogues, and analyzed the key risks of the project, taking into account the latest events.

1. The Stablecoin Question: What to Trade In, If the Dollar Returns, But with Caveats?

The main technological dilemma of the new exchange is the choice of the settlement unit. The entire global crypto market is tied to dollar stablecoins: USDT from Tether and USDC from Circle. But for Russia, these instruments have long been a “time bomb” due to sanctions risks.

However, on February 16, 2026, a significant event occurred: the Moscow Exchange found a way to bring the dollar back into exchange circulation. USDRUB_TOM trading resumed in CETS mode with a central counterparty, cross-margining, and unified collateral, but without physical delivery of the currency. This hybrid solution essentially creates a tool for managing a currency position pegged to the dollar, but settlements for it are in rubles.

What does this mean for a crypto exchange?

A potential opportunity arises to build liquidity on ruble-denominated dollar derivatives, rather than on tokenized US dollars. This reduces sanctions risks but raises the question: can such instruments provide sufficient liquidity for crypto trading, comparable to global USDT pools?

In parallel, an alternative is developing — the ruble stablecoin A7A5 from Promsvyazbank. Its market capitalization has reached $500 million, it has already processed billions in turnover, and it is recognized as a Digital Financial Asset (DFA) in Russia. However, Western regulators (the US Treasury and the EU) have added A7A5 to sanctions lists, making it toxic for any international counterparties.

Geopolitical Turn: A Return to the Dollar?

Against this backdrop, Bloomberg agency published sensational information: the Kremlin is considering the possibility of returning to dollar settlements as part of a potential deal with the administration of Donald Trump. An internal memo proposes seven areas of cooperation, including joint oil and gas projects and Russia’s return to the dollar settlement system.

If this scenario materializes, the question of stablecoins may resolve itself — the exchange would gain direct access to “hard currency.” However, Western officials doubt that Moscow would break with Beijing for such a pivot.

Section Conclusion: Until the issue of the settlement asset is resolved, it is premature to talk about launching a full-fledged exchange. The return of the dollar to the Moscow Exchange is an important step, but its crypto application requires refinement.

2. What to Build On: Someone Else’s Blockchain or Your Own Infrastructure?

The second critical question is the choice of technological platform. If the exchange is deployed on someone else’s blockchain (Ethereum, BSC, etc.), it will automatically lose sovereignty over its data and transaction control.

Public vs. Private Networks

Asset tokenization experts emphasize: the choice of blockchain is a fundamental decision.

– Public networks provide access to global liquidity, DeFi tools, and composability. But they require complex KYC/AML mechanisms and depend on external validators.
– Private networks allow for data isolation and subjection to local regulation but suffer from a lack of external liquidity.

The “Out-of-the-Box Solution” Risk

If they take the path of least resistance and simply deploy a node on the Ethereum network, the exchange will face a problem: all transactions will be visible on the public ledger, and validation will depend on foreign nodes. This contradicts the very idea of a national financial infrastructure.

Section Conclusion: The technological architecture must be designed with an eye toward sovereignty. Otherwise, “our own” exchange will simply be a window into other people’s blockchains.

3. Regulation: Will It Be Done “Pro Forma” or Conveniently?

The third, most important question is the regulatory model. According to the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank, a bill on crypto market regulation will be submitted to the State Duma in March 2026, and its adoption is expected during the spring session.

What the Central Bank Proposes

According to the concept, starting in 2026, regulation of the crypto market in Russia will become mandatory:

1. Licensing. Exchanges, depositories, wallet operators, and market makers are required to obtain a license from the Central Bank. Foreign platforms working with Russians must do so as well.
2. Investor Classification. Unqualified investors will be able to buy cryptocurrency within limits (probably around 300,000 rubles per year) and after testing. Qualified investors have no such restrictions but will not be able to trade anonymous coins.
3. Transitional Period. Until July 1, 2027, market participants can legalize. After this date, operations outside the licensed perimeter will become illegal.
4. Ban on Payments. Within the country, paying with cryptocurrency is still not allowed — only rubles.

Regulators’ Opinion

First Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Vladimir Chistyukhin stated: “The government and I would very much like the law to be adopted during the spring session.” This indicates a high level of coordination between the agencies.

Market Participants’ Opinion

Chairman of the Moscow Exchange Supervisory Board Sergey Shvetsov cited a telling figure: Russians pay about $15 billion in commissions annually to foreign crypto exchanges and “grey” platforms. For comparison, the profit of the Moscow Exchange itself is about $1 billion per year.

“Comparing our profit with this $15 billion, which we have a chance to partially return to the legal zone, could mean a significant increase in the profitability of infrastructure organizations,” Shvetsov noted.

The “Overregulation” Risk

The main danger of the model is excessive rigidity. If obtaining qualification is difficult and reporting is excessive, a significant part of the turnover will remain in the shadows. This is especially true given that, according to the Central Bank, as of mid-2025, Russians held about 933 billion rubles ($11.89 billion) on foreign exchanges.

Market Scale and Potential

The figures announced by the Ministry of Finance are impressive:

– Daily turnover: 50 billion rubles (~$650 million)
– Annual turnover: over 10 trillion rubles (~$130.5 billion)
– Participants: millions of citizens.

Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov emphasized: “This is turnover that is currently happening outside the regulated zone, outside our attention.” According to Chainalysis, Russia is the largest crypto market in Europe: from July 2024 to June 2025, the country received $376.3 billion in crypto assets, significantly outpacing the UK ($273.2 billion).

What’s the Outcome: Three Scenarios

Scenario 1. Breakthrough (Optimistic)
The Moscow Exchange solves the stablecoin problem through a hybrid model based on resumed dollar trading and ruble DFAs, builds its own blockchain platform, and the Central Bank sets adequate thresholds. The market gets a legal gateway, and turnover gradually flows into the white zone. Commissions that went abroad begin to work within the country.

Scenario 2. Bureaucratic Deadlock (Realistic)
The exchange launches, but with strict limits and complex procedures. The retail investor continues to use foreign platforms, despite the risks. The Moscow Exchange gets only the corporate segment and miners. Turnover remains incomparable to the shadow market.

Scenario 3. Abandonment (Pessimistic)
Sanctions pressure increases, the geopolitical pivot to the dollar does not happen, and the development of its own infrastructure drags on. The launch is postponed, and the market remains frozen in its “grey” state.

February 2026 sends two important signals at once. The first is that the state has finally recognized the scale of the crypto market and is ready to regulate it. The second is that the return of the dollar to the Moscow Exchange shows that even under sanctions, technical solutions can be found for working with the world’s currency.

As Sergey Shvetsov figuratively noted, the $15 billion in commissions going abroad is a reserve that can be returned to the Russian jurisdiction. But to do this, three fundamental tasks must be solved: find a stable settlement asset, build a sovereign technology platform, and create a regulatory regime that attracts rather than suffocates.

Do you believe in the success of a state-owned crypto exchange in Russia? Will you go there to trade or stay on the OTC market?

Bureau of Global Monitoring