Why Trump Is Weakening the Dollar: Risks for the US, Rise of the Euro and Franc, Finding Safety in Bitcoin | Yan Krivonosov

The Quiet Coup: Why Trump Is Tanking the Dollar and How to Avoid Getting Caught in the Crossfire
We’ve grown accustomed to the mantras: “the dollar is a safe haven,” “American assets are reliable.” But 2026 is breaking the mold. While investors habitually grab for the dollar during moments of turbulence, reality shows the opposite: today, the American currency is the primary source of the storm.
Let’s break it down without propaganda, using numbers and facts: why a weak dollar benefits Trump, who wins from this, who will be left empty-handed, and most importantly—where to find refuge when the classic shelters spring a leak.
Trump’s Plan: “Make America Great Again” at Someone Else’s Expense
In words, Donald Trump has always loved a strong dollar. In deeds, his administration is doing the exact opposite. And this isn’t a mistake; it’s a systemic strategy. Back in September 2024, he stated: “If you drop the dollar, you’re not doing business with the US.” But now the rhetoric has shifted to “the dollar is doing great,” even as the DXY index has crashed to lows not seen since February 2022. What’s the logic here?
1.Curing the Trade Deficit. The US imports almost everything. This is a massive hole in the balance of payments. A weaker dollar makes American exports (from soybeans to Boeing) cheaper and more competitive. Trump needs to reduce the deficit at any cost, even if it means more expensive imports for American citizens.
2.Reshoring (Reindustrialization). Weak dollar + high tariffs on Chinese goods = the formula for bringing factories back to the US. Intel, GM, and other giants have already invested hundreds of billions in new production facilities. The logic is simple: a cheaper currency makes local production more profitable than imports.
3.Devaluing the National Debt. The US debt has surpassed $36 trillion. The cheaper the dollar, the “easier” that debt is to service. Trump himself hinted at a scheme involving Bitcoin, but the essence is the same: print (or devalue) and write it off.
But the Price is Trust. And the Markets See It
Here we arrive at the main paradox. Trump is pushing the dollar down, but the world is starting to question: is it worth holding savings in a currency that a politician uses as a bargaining chip?
The head of Germany’s BaFin regulator, Mark Branson, recently said what many had been silent about: “There is a risk that markets will question the US dollar’s role as the world’s reserve currency.” And these aren’t just words. They are the consequence of a whole range of factors:
Trade Wars. Trump imposed tariffs on almost everyone, reducing trade with 40% of countries. This damages the US reputation as a reliable partner.
Fiscal Irresponsibility. A gigantic budget deficit (7-8% of GDP) and political pressure on the Fed undermine trust in institutions. Analysts at TD Securities already hint that the future head of the Fed (possibly Kevin Warsh) will be a “moderate dove”—a proponent of cheap money.
A Signal for Investors. The DXY dollar index collapsed by 9.37% in 2025 and continued its fall into 2026. This isn’t a correction; it’s a trend.
Who’s Picking Up the Crown? Euro and Swiss Franc Swimming Against the Current
In the classic model, when a storm hits the world, everyone runs to the dollar and the yen. Today, that model is broken. The Japanese yen has turned into a political football and crashed nearly 6% after the appointment of a new prime minister. The dollar itself has become the epicenter of the storm.
So who is winning?
The Euro. For the first time in a long while, Europe looks structurally stable. Inflation in the Eurozone is approaching its target, and industry in Germany and France is reviving. Nouriel Roubini, known for his pessimism, admitted that the European economy has strengthened. As a result, the euro is confidently rising against the dollar.
The Swiss Franc (CHF). The absolute champion. In 2025, it strengthened against the dollar by nearly 13%, and in early 2026, it hit 11-year highs. Switzerland is an island of the old world: low national debt, political neutrality, a strong economy. While the dollar and yen have “lost their luster,” the franc has proven to be the best store of value among G10 currencies.
The Connection to the Crypto World: From Fiat Sand to Digital Rock
And here we get to the most important part—the connection of this whole chaotic scene to the crypto market. In the main article, I already wrote that Bitcoin is finite. But now we have deeper analysis.
1.The Dollar is No Longer a Haven. When American assets are being sold off and the DXY index is falling, investors look for a new anchor. Historically, that was gold. Today, Bitcoin has joined it. It’s no coincidence that against the backdrop of Trump’s latest statements and the dollar’s fall, we see BTC consolidating near key levels—the market is waiting for a signal on which way to flow.
2.The End of the “Cheap Money” Era Exposed the Problems. Harvard Professor Kenneth Rogoff states plainly: the rise in rates showed that the era of cheap borrowing is over, and it’s now harder for the US to respond to crises. In such a paradigm, any hint of new QE (the printing press) will instantly evaporate into hard assets.
3.China and De-dollarization. While the US plays games with its currency, China is quietly shifting settlements into Yuan. Today, about half of China’s foreign trade transactions are conducted in its national currency. This is a tectonic shift. Global demand for dollars is falling, meaning pressure on it will only grow.
4.DeFi and Stablecoins as Beneficiaries. Trump himself is opening this Pandora’s Box by supporting the development of digital analogs of the dollar. Economists already note that stablecoins undermine the position of the regular dollar, but this is part of the “grand plan” to weaken it and devalue the national debt. For us, this is a signal: the world is changing, and blockchain tools are becoming mainstream faster than we think.
What to Do About All This?
Sitting in cash is a bad idea. Cash today is the dollar—a currency being deliberately devalued. The classic “safe-haven trio” (dollar, yen, franc) has fallen apart—of the three pillars, only one is working, and even that one is under threat of intervention.
The conclusion is simple and harsh:
Diversification is reaching a new level. It’s not enough to simply buy euros or francs. You need to look toward assets that exist outside this political kitchen. Bitcoin, gold, and now Real World Assets (RWA) on the blockchain are no longer exotic. They are becoming the only insurance against fiscal dominance, where governments solve their problems at the expense of their citizens’ pockets.
Trump is playing “America First” by weakening the dollar. But in this game, the winner is the one who managed to set up defenses before the storm engulfed everyone.
The time to act is now. Analyze, calculate the risks, but don’t sit in fiat.
Bureau of Global Monitoring