Daily Summary, June 25

RESULTS FOR JUNE 25, 2026

🌍 Geopolitics & Macroeconomics

🇪🇺🇺🇸 E5 Call for Strengthening NATO Ahead of Ankara Summit

On June 25, a meeting of the so-called European Group of Five (E5) — Germany, the UK, France, Italy, and Poland — took place in Berlin. The leaders of the five countries reaffirmed their commitment to strengthening NATO two weeks before the alliance’s summit in Ankara. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated: “We want to work together to make this important summit a success. This serves our security in dangerous times.” The E5 also welcomed the framework agreement on peaceful settlement between the US and Iran. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte joined the working meeting via video link.

Analysis: The E5 is consolidating the European position ahead of the NATO summit, demonstrating unity and a readiness to strengthen the European pillar of the alliance. At the same time, the group supports the US-Iran memorandum, signalling Europe’s desire to participate in Middle East settlement.

🇺🇸 Trump Criticises NATO Allies for Insufficient Support in Iran War

On June 25, US President Donald Trump expressed disappointment with several key NATO allies, including Italy and the UK, for insufficient support during the war with Iran. Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at the White House turned into a series of sharp statements directed at European partners, whom the US leader accused of “betraying Washington’s interests” in the Iranian conflict. According to Russian press reports, Trump stated: “I only want loyalty from Europeans.”

Analysis: Trump continues his tactic of publicly pressuring European allies, demanding greater support. However, as Japan’s Nikkei notes, from the European perspective, Trump should have coordinated his actions with Europe before the war began if he was counting on support.

🇮🇷 Iran Accuses NATO of “Complicity” in War Against Tehran

On June 25, Tehran accused NATO of “complicity” in the US-Israeli war against Iran after the alliance’s Secretary General Mark Rutte noted the bloc’s support for the US in the conflict.

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel and Lebanon in Talks Over Territorial Handover

As reported by Reuters on June 25, Israel and Lebanon are entering a new round of negotiations focused on a US-backed proposal under which Israeli forces would gradually hand over part of the territory they control in southern Lebanon to the Lebanese army.

Analysis: This is a potential breakthrough in the protracted conflict. If the proposal is implemented, it could open the way for the withdrawal of Israeli troops and reduce tensions on the Lebanon-Israel border.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Peskov: Russia Awaits Continuation of Dialogue with US on Ukraine

On June 25, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that Russia highly appreciates US President Donald Trump’s efforts to resolve the conflict in Ukraine and expects continued dialogue with the American side. At the same time, Peskov noted that it is impossible to make efforts toward a settlement while being involved in the conflict on one side, and the US negotiating team “understands this perfectly.”

Analysis: Moscow is keeping diplomatic channels with Washington open but is making it clear that Kyiv is not an equal negotiating partner for it.

🇪🇺 EU Extends Economic Sanctions Against Russia Until July 31, 2027

On June 25, the Council of the European Union officially extended economic sanctions against Russia for another 12 months — until July 31, 2027. The restrictive measures are linked to “Russia’s actions destabilising the situation in Ukraine.” The sanctions continue to cover trade, the financial sector, energy, dual-use technologies, imports of Russian oil and oil products, as well as a number of Russian banks and media outlets. The EU Council also stated its readiness to adopt additional measures and accelerate preparations for the 21st package of anti-Russian sanctions.

Analysis: Extending sanctions for a year instead of the usual six months is a signal that Europe is preparing for a long-term confrontation with Russia. However, as German economist Max Otte notes, such a policy “inexorably pushes Europe toward the brink of the abyss.”

🇺🇦 Explosions in Kyiv on the Evening of June 25

According to eyewitness reports, loud explosions rang out in Kyiv on the evening of June 25. The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russian troops had launched missiles at Kyiv.

🇷🇺 Russian Foreign Ministry: Security Guarantees Are Key Condition for Ukraine Peace Deal

On June 25, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stated that reliable security guarantees are a key condition for signing a peace agreement on Ukraine.

🇧🇾 Belarus Warns of Regional Security Risks Due to Kyiv’s Threats

On June 25, Belarus’s permanent representative to the OSCE stated that Kyiv’s overt threats against Belarus are evidence of the extreme degree of decay of Ukraine’s ruling elite.

🇷🇺🇰🇵 Russia Concerned About Military Activity by South Korea and US Near DPRK Borders

On June 25, the Russian side conveyed to its South Korean counterpart its concern over the continuing military activity by Seoul and Washington, which, in Russian diplomats’ view, is leading to further escalation of tensions.

🇪🇺 Macron: US No Longer a Neutral Mediator on Ukraine

Representatives of the G7 countries signed a document on June 25 indicating that the United States is no longer a neutral mediator on the issue of resolving the conflict in Ukraine.

🇷🇺 Russia

🛡 Russian Defence Ministry: 269 Ukrainian Drones Destroyed Overnight

Russian forces intercepted and destroyed 269 Ukrainian drones over 13 Russian regions, including Moscow region, as well as over the Black Sea, overnight from June 24 to 25, the Russian Defence Ministry reported.

💡 Crimean Bridge: Nearly 900 Cars in Queue

On the morning of June 25, nearly 900 cars were queued on both sides of the Crimean Bridge. The waiting time was about three hours.

🏛 Bill on AI Development Support Submitted to State Duma

On June 25, the Russian government submitted to the State Duma a bill on supporting the development of artificial intelligence technologies. The document is aimed at creating legal conditions for accelerated development and deployment of AI and ensuring state technological sovereignty. As the Cabinet emphasised, the bill is designed to create legal conditions that will accelerate the development and application of AI in the country while guaranteeing the state’s technological independence.

💻 Technology & AI

🤖 OpenAI and Broadcom Unveil AI Chip “Jalapeño”

On June 25, OpenAI and Broadcom officially unveiled their first joint custom chip, named Jalapeño, specifically designed for inference tasks of large language models. The chip is built to boost performance, efficiency, and scalability of OpenAI’s AI systems. Initial deployment is planned for late 2026, with expansion in subsequent years.

Analysis: Jalapeño is a strategic move by OpenAI toward vertical integration, reducing dependence on Nvidia. If the chip lives up to expectations, it could shift the balance of power in the AI hardware market and reduce the operating costs of ChatGPT and other AI products.

🌍 “Summer Davos” Concludes in Dalian

The 17th Annual Meeting of the New Champions of the World Economic Forum (“Summer Davos”) was held from June 23 to 25 in Dalian. The main focus of the forum was on the development of artificial intelligence.

💥 Digital Sector & Regulation

📱 VK and Odnoklassniki Removed from App Store

On June 25, almost all applications of the VK holding disappeared from the App Store without warning. Among those removed: VK Video, VK Music, VK Messenger, Odnoklassniki, Mail.ru Mail, Zen, Skillbox, and others. VK’s press service stated they were aware of the situation, but the official reason has not yet been disclosed. The Kremlin called it a “momentary decision” by Apple.

Analysis: The mass removal of VK applications is an escalation of Apple’s pressure on the Russian digital sector. This is not the first case: previously, the state messenger MAX was removed. The trend toward deplatforming Russian services continues, creating risks for users and digital infrastructure.

🇷🇺 Russia: Ban on Cryptocurrency Advertising

On June 25, Anatoly Aksakov, head of the State Duma Committee on the Financial Market, announced plans to ban public advertising of cryptocurrencies in Russia. However, companies would be allowed to mention that they work with this instrument. The legislative process is dragging on: the adoption of the law has been postponed beyond July 1, and the Central Bank insists on a complete ban on advertising specific cryptocurrencies.

Analysis: Banning advertising while allowing companies to “mention” working with cryptocurrencies is a compromise between the Central Bank’s hardline stance and business interests. However, the delay in passing the law creates regulatory uncertainty for the market.

₿ Blockchain & Cryptocurrencies

📉 Bitcoin Falls to 20-Month Low Below $60,000

On June 25, bitcoin broke through the psychological barrier of $60,000, falling to $58,115 — its lowest level since October 2024. The daily drop exceeded 5%. Ethereum also fell below $1,600. Over $653 million was liquidated in 24 hours. The main drivers of the decline: mass selling of tech stocks, expectations of a Fed rate hike (US inflation exceeded 4% in May for the first time in three years), retail investor outflows from cryptocurrencies into AI stocks, and stalled progress on the CLARITY Act in the US Senate.

Analysis: Bitcoin continues to fall amid Fed monetary policy tightening and capital outflows from risky assets into the AI sector. Breaking $60,000 opens the path to $58,000–54,000.

🇮🇷 Iran and CoinEx: $3.84 Billion in Sanctions Evasion

Analytical firm TRM Labs claimed that crypto exchange CoinEx has processed over $3.84 billion in flows linked to sanctioned Iranian organisations since 2019, including the Central Bank of Iran. CoinEx denied the allegations, stating that it has been blacklisted and blocked in Iran since 2021.

Analysis: Regardless of whether the allegations are confirmed, the mere fact of the investigation shows that crypto exchanges remain a key channel for sanctions evasion by Iran. This will intensify regulatory pressure on centralised exchanges worldwide.

📉 DeFi Continues to Bleed Liquidity

The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi has fallen approximately 39% since the start of 2026 — from $115 billion in January to around $70 billion in June. Only Tron and Hyperliquid showed growth among major networks.

Analysis: DeFi is experiencing a systemic capital outflow amid declining trust following a series of hacks (over $942 million stolen in 2026) and a shift of funds into safer assets. This mirrors the broader cooling of the crypto market.

🐋 Charles Schwab Clients Gain Access to Bitcoin

Investment giant Charles Schwab (managing $12 trillion in assets) launched spot trading of bitcoin and ether for retail clients. Cryptocurrency became available directly in the familiar trading terminal, mobile app, and platform. The product had been tested on a limited group of clients since May 2026.

Analysis: Charles Schwab’s entry into the spot crypto market is a landmark event. $12 trillion under management and 35 million clients represent a massive influx of institutional capital into cryptocurrencies, despite the current price drop. This is a signal that Wall Street sees long-term value.

🪙 Whale Sells 27,585 ETH After 7 Years of Inactivity

A large holder (address 0x0965) sold 27,585 ETH over two days at an average price of $1,625, generating $44.84 million in proceeds. The net profit from the operation exceeded $39 million.

Analysis: The sale after a long period of inactivity amid ETH falling below $1,600 is a signal that even “old” holders are losing faith in a near-term recovery. This adds downward pressure to the market.

📊 Crypto Exchanges Evolving into RWA Platforms

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, stated that crypto exchanges are evolving into platforms for trading real-world assets (RWA). On Binance, average trading volumes for USDT-perpetuals on metals, oil, and stocks are already outpacing altcoins outside the top 10.

Analysis: Crypto exchanges are no longer “just crypto.” Tokenisation of real assets — oil, metals, stocks — is becoming a new driver. This is a fundamental shift: exchanges are becoming universal financial hubs where cryptocurrency becomes a medium of exchange rather than the only asset.

☠️ Polymarket: $3 Million Lost to Phishing Attack

On June 25, prediction market platform Polymarket was attacked through a compromised third-party provider that injected malicious script into the website. Hackers stole approximately $3 million from fewer than 15 users, targeting their pUSD positions. Polymarket promised to fully compensate the victims.

Analysis: A supply-chain attack through a third-party provider represents a new level of threat to DeFi platforms. This is not a smart-contract hack but infrastructure compromise. Against the backdrop of the fake-bets scandal and the CFTC lawsuit against Kentucky, Polymarket continues to lose trust.

🎮 GTA 6 Pre-Orders Available for Russians

On June 25, pre-orders for Grand Theft Auto VI launched simultaneously with the global start. In Russian retail, the standard edition costs about 9,999–10,990 rubles, and the expanded edition — 13,990 rubles. On Sony and Microsoft digital platforms — $80 and $100 respectively (about 6,000 and 7,600 rubles). The game is scheduled for release on November 19, 2026.

Analysis: GTA 6 is not just a gaming industry event but also an economic one: the scale of sales will affect consumer spending in Q4. For Russians, the retail price is almost double the digital price — a consequence of sanctions restrictions and payment system issues.

🏛 Companies & Regulation

🚂 Germany Fully Halted Trains Due to Radio Communication Failure (Wrap-Up)

On the evening of June 23, national rail operator Deutsche Bahn suspended all train services across Germany due to problems with the digital GSM-R radio communication system — the primary means of communication between drivers and dispatch centres. Trains were stranded at stations and on open tracks. By the morning of June 25, services had been restored, though delays were still possible.

Analysis: The large-scale failure of critical infrastructure in Germany is a reminder of the vulnerability of digital control systems. Notably, contrary to initial reports, security authorities are not considering sabotage as a version, citing a technical failure as the cause.

🧯 Markets & Economy

📉 Nasdaq Falls for Fourth Consecutive Session

US stock indices closed mixed on June 25: the Dow Jones rose 0.14% (to 51,920.62), the S&P 500 fell 0.01% (to 7,357.49), and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.46% (to 25,358.60). The tech sector remains under pressure: Apple fell 6.1% after raising prices on iPads and MacBooks; Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet lost 0.5% to 3.5%. Meanwhile, Micron surged 15.7% after a report that beat Wall Street expectations.

Inflation in the US exceeded 4% in May for the first time in three years, driven by high energy prices. Traders expect a Fed rate hike of at least 25 basis points by year-end. US GDP grew 2.1% in Q1 (revised from 1.6%).

Analysis: The market continues to digest the aftermath of the SpaceX IPO and expectations of Fed tightening. Tech giants are suffering from rising production costs, while chipmakers (Micron, Qualcomm, Sandisk) are showing growth — investors are betting on specific segments rather than the “broad” tech sector.

🏛 Architectural Conclusion (June 25 Results)

Receptive Intelligence registered: the E5 called for strengthening NATO and supported the US-Iran memorandum; Trump criticised NATO allies for insufficient support in Iran; Iran accused NATO of “complicity” in the war; Israel and Lebanon began a new round of talks on territorial handover; Peskov stated readiness to continue dialogue with the US on Ukraine; the EU extended sanctions against Russia until July 2027; explosions in Kyiv; the Russian Defence Ministry reported 269 drones destroyed; an AI support bill was submitted to the State Duma; OpenAI and Broadcom unveiled the Jalapeño chip; VK and Odnoklassniki were removed from the App Store; bitcoin fell to a 20-month low below $60,000; the Nasdaq fell for the fourth straight session; US inflation exceeded 4%; Charles Schwab launched bitcoin trading; DeFi continues to lose liquidity; Polymarket lost $3 million to a phishing attack; GTA 6 pre-orders are available for Russians.

Coordinating Intelligence operates in multiple directions: Europe demonstrates unity ahead of the NATO summit, but Trump continues to publicly pressure allies; Russia keeps diplomatic channels with the US open but rejects direct talks with Kyiv; the crypto market collapses amid capital outflows to AI stocks and expectations of Fed tightening; the tech sector is undergoing a revaluation — chipmakers are rising while consumer giants are falling.

Structuring Intelligence works ahead: the E5 is shaping a consolidated European position ahead of the NATO summit; OpenAI is creating its own chip to reduce dependence on Nvidia; the EU is building a long-term sanctions architecture against Russia; Russia is passing an AI support law to ensure technological sovereignty.

Executive Intelligence is already acting: investors are pulling capital from cryptocurrencies and the broad tech sector into AI stocks and chipmakers; traders are pricing in a Fed rate hike; Europe is preparing for the 21st sanctions package against Russia; passengers in Germany faced chaos on the railways; Russian users are losing access to VK applications in the App Store.

📅 What’s Next (June 26–30)

June 25–26: Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC-2026) in Gdańsk — without Zelensky’s participation.

June 26: Expected market reaction to US inflation data and Fed statements.

June 30: Iranian presidential elections could affect the implementation of the deal.

July 1: MiCA takes effect in the EU — effectively squeezing out USDT and introducing new crypto regulations.

Ongoing: Lebanon-Israel talks in Washington; preparations for the NATO summit in Ankara (July 7–8, 2026).

💡 Key Advice for the Next Two Weeks

Keep 20–30% of your portfolio in cash / short-term bonds. Iran negotiations and the NATO summit could lead either to a breakthrough or to a new round of escalation.

In crypto — watch the $58,000–60,000 zone for BTC. The decline continues amid capital outflows to AI stocks and hawkish Fed rhetoric. $60,000 has already been broken — the next level is $58,000–54,000. Be prepared for further correction.

Pay attention to the tech sector. The market is revaluing AI giants: chipmakers are rising, consumer giants (Apple) are falling. Look for opportunities in specific segments rather than the “broad” tech sector.

Watch the CLARITY Act. Its stall in the Senate is the main regulatory risk for the US crypto market. The banking lobby is resisting, and it remains unclear whether the law will pass this year.

Be prepared for volatility. The Middle East conflict, the NATO summit, Fed policy tightening, Iranian elections, and EU regulatory changes create risks for all asset classes.

This digest is based on open sources. The analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.