Daily Summary, June 29

RESULTS FOR JUNE 29, 2026

🌍 Geo-economics and Macroeconomics

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran: new round of strikes and contradictions over talks

Over the weekend, the US and Iran exchanged military strikes once again – Washington struck Iranian targets in response to “continued aggression against commercial shipping” in the Strait of Hormuz, while Tehran responded with strikes on US military positions in the region. Afterwards, the parties again agreed to a cessation of hostilities and to hold technical talks on Tuesday in Doha. The US technical team will be led by Nick Stewart.

However, statements from the sides diverge sharply: US President Donald Trump said on social media on June 29 that Iran had requested negotiations and that “the meeting will take place tomorrow in Doha.” That same day, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Ismail Bagaei denied this, saying the republic does not plan talks with the US in the coming days, and Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that Iran has no plans to meet with the US working group in Qatar this week.

Iran also cancelled participation in the planned technical talks, citing recent US military actions and the non‑fulfilment of certain conditions of the memorandum of understanding – in particular, access to frozen assets abroad. Earlier, it was reported that under the memorandum Iran had committed to ensuring safe passage for commercial vessels through the strait, while the US had lifted the blockade on Iranian ports. The resumption of hostilities was caused by conflicting interpretations of the memorandum.

Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a low level – over the weekend only a small number of vessels passed openly through the strait.

Analysis: The situation remains extremely tense and contradictory. Agreements on negotiations exist on paper, but the parties interpret them differently, and mutual strikes continue. The technical talks in Doha on 30 June may either become a breakthrough or fail – markets are in a wait‑and‑see mode.

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Israel and Lebanon: framework agreement under threat of collapse

On June 26 in Washington, with US mediation, a framework agreement was signed between Israel and Lebanon aimed at ending hostilities, creating a security zone in southern Lebanon, and ending the state of war. Netanyahu called it “opening the way to a peace agreement,” emphasising that the agreement “strengthens Israel and Lebanon and weakens Iran and Hezbollah.” Israeli forces will continue to hold the “security zone” until Hezbollah is fully disarmed.

On June 29, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun discussed with CENTCOM commander Brad Cooper the preparations for implementing the agreement, reaffirming the resolve to extend the authority of the Lebanese army all the way to the southern border. That same day, Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri said the framework agreement “will not be accepted,” calling it a “dictate agreement” that does not protect Lebanon’s rights.

Analysis: Political opposition to the agreement is growing within Lebanon. President Aoun supports the deal, while Speaker Berri opposes it. This creates risks for implementation and could lead to a political crisis in Beirut.

🇪🇺 Slovakia officially refuses to finance Ukraine at the NATO summit

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico confirmed that the country will not support the allocation of military aid to Ukraine at the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara on July 7–8. Fico stated: “Slovakia will not pay for Ukraine’s military expenses,” adding that his government supports dialogue, not war. At the summit, NATO allies are discussing a support package for Ukraine worth about €70 billion.

Analysis: Slovakia joins Hungary and Bulgaria in blocking consensus on military aid to Ukraine. This signals growing divisions within NATO ahead of the Ankara summit.

🇷🇺 Putin: difficult times, building up air defence, and readiness for talks

Speaking at the United Russia party congress, Vladimir Putin said the country is going through “difficult times” and called on the party to “do everything for victory.” He also called for urgently increasing the production of air defence systems, acknowledging that strikes on energy infrastructure are “problematic.”

At the same time, Putin said that Moscow is waiting for US representatives and is ready to continue negotiations, noting that talks on Ukraine could take place in Belarus.

Analysis: Putin combines tough rhetoric (“everything for victory”) with signals of diplomatic flexibility – a classic approach ahead of the NATO summit.

🇪🇺 European Commission supports the Lebanon‑Israel agreement

Ursula von der Leyen expressed support for the framework agreement between Israel and Lebanon, calling it “an extremely positive and necessary step towards de‑escalation.” The EU reaffirms its support for diplomatic settlement, remaining largely an observer.

💻 Technology and AI

🤖 Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warns of risks of a burst AI bubble

In its annual report published on June 29, the BIS named a “burst AI bubble,” a resurgence of inflation, and pressure on sovereign debt as the three main risks threatening global economic prosperity. The potential destructive force of these risks is comparable to the 2008 financial crisis.

Analysis: The BIS, the “central bank of central banks,” is sounding the alarm – a signal for global regulators and investors about systemic risks in the technology sector.

🤖 OpenAI GPT‑5.6: restricted access at the request of US authorities

OpenAI officially released GPT‑5.6 Sol (the flagship model) in limited access for “trusted partners” at the request of the US administration. The cost of Sol is $5 per million input tokens and $30 per million output tokens – roughly half the price of Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5. The other two versions – Terra and Luna – have also been released with gradual expansion of access.

🤖 Anthropic: Trump administration preparing to lift restrictions on Fable 5

According to media reports, the Trump administration may lift restrictions on the use of Anthropic’s Fable 5 model within a week. Earlier, on June 12, the US government demanded a suspension of access to Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for security reasons. Currently, Mythos 5 is already open to “trusted partners,” while the final decision on Fable 5 awaits approval from the Pentagon and the NSA. Leading AI companies have called on the US administration to clearly define the rules for AI development.

Analysis: The US is moving from total restrictions to a “trusted partners” model, creating managed access to advanced AI models – a new regulatory paradigm. At the same time, the AI race continues to accelerate amid global instability.

🤖 Google restricts Gemini due to lack of computing power

Google has begun to restrict access to the Gemini API and the allocation of computing resources due to a sharp rise in demand. Meta, in particular, was unable to obtain the necessary quotas for its internal AI projects.

Analysis: Even the largest technology companies are facing a shortage of computing power for AI – this is a structural challenge for the entire industry.

⚖️ AI wins a case in a British court for the first time

A neural network prepared documents, witness statements, and all pre‑trial work, and the client was able to recover a debt of £7,000. This is the first precedent where artificial intelligence successfully replaced a legal team at all stages except the final hearing.

Analysis: AI is beginning to enter the legal sphere not as an assistant but as a full‑fledged performer – this changes the legal services market and raises questions about admissibility and accountability.

📊 Markets and Economy

📈 Global markets: modest gains after a volatile week

On Monday, global markets saw mostly positive sentiment after a weak previous week. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.38% to 25,646.52 points. Investors were buying back losses in the tech sector after last week’s 4.6% drop in the Nasdaq. S&P 500 futures strengthened by 0.76%, and the 10‑year US Treasury yield rose to 4.37%. The European Stoxx 600 fell 0.06%, while China’s CSI 300 rose 1.21% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 1.48%.

Analysis: The tech sector is rebounding after the sell‑off – investors are buying the dip in AI stocks, but high uncertainty remains.

🛢 Oil: rising on renewed US‑Iran strikes

Brent crude rose to $72.2 per barrel. The increase is linked to the resumption of mutual missile strikes between the US and Iran in the Middle East.

🏦 ECB Forum in Sintra in focus

Investors are watching speeches by central bank leaders at the ECB Forum in Sintra, Portugal. Central bank officials maintain a hawkish tone.

🇨🇳 China: industrial profits up 18.8%

Profits of major Chinese industrial enterprises for January–May rose 18.8% year‑on‑year. The PBOC provided banks with 300 billion yuan ($44 billion) via reverse repo operations.

💰 Finance, Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies

📉 Bitcoin below $60,000: record ETF outflows

Bitcoin fell to $59,000, down 7.9% on the week. Outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs in June exceeded the February 2025 record of $3.6 billion. On June 26 alone, outflows were $444.5 million – the 7th consecutive day. Total outflows for June reached $40.6 billion.

Bitcoin risks ending the quarter with a 13% loss – this could be only the third case of two consecutive quarterly losses in its entire history.

The Fear and Greed Index fell to 12 – “extreme fear.” Over 24 hours, $326 million in crypto futures were liquidated.

Ethereum trades around $1,575 – virtually unchanged. Meanwhile, the Solana memecoin ANSEM surged 600x in three days.

Analysis: Record institutional outflows and extreme fear are classic signs of capitulation. However, the absence of a catalyst for a reversal keeps the risk of further declines. Institutional investors can sell just as aggressively as they buy.

📉 Investors have been pulling money out of spot Bitcoin ETFs for 7 consecutive weeks

A total of $7.8 billion has left the funds over this period. This is the longest streak of net outflows since the ETFs launched in January 2024. Despite occasional inflow days, the overall trend remains negative.

Analysis: The systematic exit of institutional capital points to a shift in long‑term sentiment – investors are reassessing risks amid geopolitical uncertainty and a tightening regulatory environment.

🪙 Strategy did NOT buy Bitcoin last week and approved a $1 billion share buyback

Michael Saylor’s company, for the first time in a long while, did not increase its Bitcoin reserves. Instead, the board of directors approved a $1 billion share buyback programme. In addition, Strategy gained the ability to sell Bitcoin worth up to $1.25 billion to replenish its dollar reserves – this is the first signal of a possible change in the “buy and hold” strategy.

Analysis: Saylor is softening his rigid strategy amid the BTC decline and market criticism. The possibility of selling part of the reserves is a worrying signal for those who believed in infinite accumulation.

📜 CLARITY Act: 5 days left until the deadline

The CLARITY Act (regulatory clarity for digital assets) is entering a critical phase: there are 5 days left until July 4. Senator Angela Alsobrooks (Democrat, Maryland) said she “sees more room for a bipartisan agreement.”

However, Galaxy Research has lowered the probability of CLARITY passing in 2026 to 49% from 60% at the start of the month. The Senate goes on recess until July 13 – a hard deadline.

Analysis: The CLARITY Act is the main regulatory risk for the US crypto market. Its passage could radically change the rules of the game; failure would maintain uncertainty.

🇪🇺 MiCA: 244 licences issued, deadline 1 July

According to ESMA, as of 29 June, 244 licences have been issued under MiCA (crypto‑asset regulation in the EU). Germany leads with 57 licences, France with 26. Five EU countries, including Greece and Hungary, have not issued a single licence.

The European Banking Authority has published a framework for sanctions against non‑compliant issuers. 1 July marks the full entry into force of MiCA. Binance and other exchanges that do not meet the requirements are winding down their activities in Europe.

Analysis: 1 July is a regulatory shock for the European crypto market. The effective squeeze‑out of non‑compliant stablecoins (including USDT) and exchanges is reshaping the industry landscape.

🇪🇺 Bybit ceases servicing EU users on its global platform

The exchange is moving European clients to a separate platform, Bybit EU, registered in Austria. This is a forced move to comply with MiCA requirements. Users must undergo re‑verification by 1 July, otherwise access to accounts will be restricted.

Analysis: Even major exchanges are forced to create separate legal entities for EU operations – fragmentation of the crypto market by jurisdiction is intensifying.

🇮🇳 In India, USDT suddenly became more expensive than the dollar

The stablecoin is being sold at a premium of more than 8.5% – around 103 rupees per USDT, compared to the official exchange rate of about 95 rupees per dollar. This is due to local liquidity shortages and restrictions on fiat withdrawals from Indian exchanges.

Analysis: Even stablecoins are not immune to local imbalances. Price differences for USDT between different markets create arbitrage opportunities but also signal liquidity problems in the region.

🏛 Invesco: sovereign funds shifting to energy

An Invesco survey showed that sovereign funds and central banks managing $29 trillion in assets are rebalancing portfolios towards energy and physical assets. 80% of respondents consider energy security the most reliable investment category.

🪙 Vitalik Buterin wrote an article about obfuscation

The co‑founder of Ethereum published a piece explaining the concept of obfuscation – one of the most powerful and complex cryptographic tools that allows a program to be run so that the result is visible while its internal logic remains hidden (under the hood). Buterin believes obfuscation could become a key element for private smart contracts and next‑generation decentralised applications.

Analysis: Vitalik continues to develop the theoretical foundations of cryptography, laying the groundwork for the next generation of confidential computing on blockchain.

☠️ Crypto scams: new victims around the world

An American pensioner lost $222,000 in a romance crypto scam – a fraudster under the name “Bella” gained his trust, moved the conversation to Telegram, and step by step drained his money through Coinbase to fake wallets. US authorities have already found and seized some funds in USDT.

In Russia, another woman lost 7,000,000 rubles on “crypto investments” – she was persuaded to invest in a fake platform promising 300% annual returns.

Analysis: “Romance + investments + crypto” is a classic scam scheme. These cases show that the problem is not the technology but social engineering and lack of financial literacy. Scammers actively use crypto because of the difficulty of recovering funds.

⛔️ Loopring is shutting down its DEX

The decentralised exchange Loopring announced it is ceasing operations. Trading has already been halted, the relayer is offline, and user funds are promised to be automatically returned to wallets at the team’s expense. The reason is low activity and the inability to maintain the project’s economic viability.

Analysis: Even well‑known DEX projects are closing amid a falling market and declining interest in decentralised trading. This signals consolidation in the DeFi sector.

🇦🇿 Azerbaijan plans to pass a crypto law by the end of 2026

The country’s central bank has already prepared a draft law on regulating the crypto‑asset market and submitted it for review to government bodies. The law is expected to be passed by year‑end, creating a legal framework for the legal operation of crypto exchanges and exchangers.

Analysis: Azerbaijan joins the list of countries seeking to create clear regulations for the crypto market. This could attract investment and reduce risks for local users.

🏛 Bank for International Settlements (BIS) on stablecoins

In addition to the warning about the AI bubble, the BIS report separately noted that current USDT and USDC do not qualify as full‑fledged money because they do not provide guaranteed exchange at par between different issuers and blockchains. The regulator called for creating uniform standards for stablecoins.

Analysis: The BIS is striking at the foundation of stablecoins, questioning their status as “digital money.” This will increase regulatory pressure and may push central banks to accelerate the launch of their own CBDCs.

🚓 Chainalysis proposed to bring order to blockchain investigations

The analytics firm has put forward an initiative to standardise risk assessment methods for crypto addresses. Currently, the same address can be treated differently by different AML services – sometimes as clean, sometimes as suspicious. Chainalysis proposes creating a common registry and a unified methodology to improve investigation efficiency and reduce false positives.

Analysis: The lack of uniform standards in AML checks creates chaos and unfair blocks. Chainalysis’s initiative could lead to the creation of a global registry of “clean” addresses, which would mean another step towards the deanonymisation of cryptocurrencies.

🏛 Companies and Regulation

🍎 Apple removed VK and Odnoklassniki from the App Store

Apple removed all VK holding apps from the App Store: VKontakte, Odnoklassniki, VK Video, VK Music, VK Messenger, and Zen. The company said it is complying with sanctions (without specifying which country’s sanctions).

Analysis: The escalation of Apple’s pressure on the Russian digital sector continues – de‑platforming of Russian services is becoming a systemic trend.

👮‍♂️ A VK employee convinced his mother to buy company shares at 2,000 rubles – now down 90%

In 2020, a VK employee convinced his mother to buy company shares at 2,000 rubles each instead of a bank deposit. The current price is about 194 rubles – a 90% loss. The story became widely known and sparked public outcry.

Analysis: A classic example of risky investing without diversification – concentration in a single asset and lack of hedging led to catastrophic consequences. Even company employees do not always objectively assess the prospects of their own shares.

⚡️ Elon Musk launched X Money – without cryptocurrencies

X Money – a payment service based on X – has been launched for a limited group of users. Binance CEO CZ asked Musk about the possibility of a partnership, to which Musk replied that the service does not yet work with cryptocurrencies. Users have already started transferring money to each other via X.

Analysis: A social network is becoming a payment service – a tectonic shift in financial architecture. X Money currently works only with fiat, but in the long term, integration with cryptocurrencies remains a question of time.

🇷🇺 Russia: new digital assets law comes into force on 1 July

From 1 July 2026, the law “On Digital Currencies and Digital Rights” comes into force in Russia. Non‑qualified investors are allowed to trade only BTC, ETH and USDT, with an investment limit of 300,000 rubles. All investors (both qualified and non‑qualified) must pass a mandatory knowledge test before purchasing digital assets. From 2027, unlicensed crypto lending will be prohibited.

🏛 Architectural Summary (Results for June 29)

Receptive Intelligence recorded: the US and Iran exchanged strikes over the weekend and again agreed to talks in Doha; Iran’s Foreign Ministry denied participation in the talks; Trump insists they will take place; Lebanon’s president confirmed implementation of the framework agreement with Israel, but the parliament speaker rejected it; Slovakia officially refused military funding for Ukraine at the NATO summit; Putin called for “doing everything for victory” and boosting air defence; the BIS warned about the risks of a burst AI bubble and criticised stablecoins; Bitcoin fell below $60,000, ETF outflows broke records, investors have been withdrawing funds for 7 weeks; Strategy did not buy BTC and approved a $1 billion buyback; Nasdaq rose 1.38% after falling 4.6% last week; Apple removed VK and Odnoklassniki from the App Store; Elon Musk launched X Money without crypto; 1 July is the MiCA deadline in the EU and the entry into force of Russia’s digital assets law; Loopring shuts down its DEX; AI won a court case in Britain for the first time; Azerbaijan prepares a crypto law; Chainalysis proposes standardising AML checks.

Coordinating Intelligence is moving in multiple directions: the US and Iran de‑escalate in rhetoric, but military strikes continue and the parties differ in their interpretation of the negotiation agenda; Israel is cementing its agreement with Lebanon, but political opposition is growing within Lebanon; divisions within NATO are widening (Slovakia refuses funding for Ukraine); Russia combines tough rhetoric with signals of diplomatic flexibility; the crypto market shows record outflows and extreme fear, while the largest holder (Strategy) is changing its strategy; the AI sector is recovering losses, but the BIS warns of systemic risks.

Structuring Intelligence is working ahead: the US and Iran are building (or simulating) a de‑escalation mechanism through technical talks in Doha – 30 June will be the decisive test; Israel is cementing a “security zone” in Lebanon as a long‑term factor; the US is moving to a “trusted partners” model in regulating access to advanced AI models; the BIS warns of systemic risks from the AI bubble and stablecoins; the CLARITY Act in the US and MiCA in the EU are defining the new regulatory architecture for the crypto market; Strategy is preparing to sell BTC – a possible reversal of the largest corporate holder’s strategy.

Executive Intelligence is already acting: investors are buying back losses in AI stocks after last week’s sell‑off – Nasdaq +1.38%; Bitcoin ETFs are seeing record monthly outflows; the Fear and Greed Index is at a minimum (12); Apple is removing Russian apps; X Money launches as a payment service; European exchanges are winding down due to MiCA; Bybit moves clients to a separate platform; Loopring shuts down its DEX; Chainalysis proposes new standards.

📅 What’s Next (June 30 – July 1)

June 30:

US‑Iran technical talks in Doha (if they take place) – the main event of the day

Presidential elections in Iran – could affect the implementation of the deal with the US

July 1:

Full entry into force of MiCA in the EU – effective squeeze‑out of USDT and new crypto regulation

Entry into force of Russia’s digital assets law – restrictions for non‑qualified investors

Possible entry into force of the mining ban in Moscow and the Moscow region

Ongoing:

Lebanon‑Israel negotiations and implementation of the framework agreement

Preparation for the NATO summit in Ankara (July 7–8)

Expected:

21st EU sanctions package against Russia – discussion in the near future

💡 Main advice for the next two weeks

Keep 20–30% of your portfolio in cash / short‑term bonds. Talks on Iran (Doha, June 30 – if they happen), the Iranian elections, and the NATO summit (Ankara, July 7–8) could lead either to a breakthrough or to a new round of escalation.

In cryptocurrencies – the $59,000 zone for BTC. The Fear and Greed Index has dropped to 12 – extreme fear, historically indicating capitulation zones. Record monthly ETF outflows ($40.6 billion in June) and seven consecutive weeks of institutional withdrawals point to low‑confidence consolidation. Strategy is changing its strategy – this is an important signal. Watch the CLARITY Act in the Senate – 5 days left until the deadline. On 1 July, MiCA comes into force in the EU, which will create a regulatory shock for the market.

Pay attention to the technology sector. The Nasdaq is recovering losses after a 4.6% drop last week. The BIS has warned about the risks of a burst AI bubble. The US government is moving to a “trusted partners” model in regulating access to advanced AI models. AI won a court case for the first time – that’s a precedent.

Watch the CLARITY Act in the US Senate. The voting window is shrinking – 5 days left until July 4, then the Senate goes on recess until July 13. This is the main regulatory risk for the US crypto market.

Be prepared for volatility. The Middle East conflict (Hormuz, Israel‑Lebanon, US‑Iran), the NATO summit, Iranian elections, the 21st EU sanctions package, and MiCA create risks for all asset classes. The divergence between US and Iranian positions on the Doha talks adds additional uncertainty.

The digest is based on open sources. The analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.