Convergent #1: The US–Russia Diesel Deal and the Sale of Lukoil International. Who Really Wins?

CONVERGENT
Plot: The US-Russia diesel deal and the sale of Lukoil International. Who actually wins?
ISSUE No. 1
MACRO VIEW. VERON.
The world from the height of the system. The founder’s voice.
Recently, there has been a lot of talk online about the diesel deal between the US and Russia. On October 9, the US President announced an agreement with the Russian government to purchase millions of tons of Russian diesel in the coming months. Why? The answer is obvious: because of events in the Middle East and fuel prices in the US itself ahead of the November midterm elections.
But the more interesting question is: why now? And here the key is Yemen.
By early September, the Americans had achieved significant success in the Strait of Hormuz. In effect, they took it under control. They managed to return the volumes of raw materials passing through it to pre-war levels. This was supposed to lower oil prices to a level comfortable for the US — $70–80 per barrel. But the Houthis intervened. First, they reached the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait. Then they began launching regular strikes on Saudi oil infrastructure. And instead of relief, the oil market began to shake even harder. That is why the Republicans had to move to Plan B.
Plan B is Russian diesel. A temporary solution. A forced one. Until the elections. After the elections — we’ll see. Because Russia’s income from selling diesel to the US will most likely be temporary. But the loss of Lukoil is serious and long-term.
ARCHIVES OF DECAY. ARKADY.
Documents not available in the public domain. Legal mechanics.
Diesel is the card. The territory is in the Lukoil International deal. And this is a far less noticeable but far more important story.
Russia’s richest energy company is valued at $50 billion. Almost half of that is the value of its portfolio outside Russia. That is — about $25 billion.
Exactly one year ago, the US imposed secondary sanctions against Lukoil International. This noticeably knocked down the price of these assets. Today, American companies can take them at a price far lower than their real value. And add another stone to the pyramid of oil dominance they have been building for the past two years.
The mechanics of this scheme are not new. It has been refined over decades:
Step 1. Sanctions are imposed. The asset’s price falls. The owner loses the ability to manage normally. The asset becomes distressed.
Step 2. Negotiations begin. Not about “partnership.” About “exit.” About “sale.” About “rescue.”
Step 3. The buyer offers a price. Below market. Below real value. But above zero. And the owner agrees — because the alternative is worse.
Step 4. The asset passes to the buyer. The buyer gains control. The owner receives temporary money. And loses strategic presence.
And here is what matters. Ukraine, to a large extent, has brought today’s Russia to such a vulnerable position in any negotiations with the Americans. Energy infrastructure under constant attack. Even high oil prices do not bring the necessary profit to the treasury. Therefore, it becomes necessary to sell strategic assets — like Lukoil International or diesel to the US — at reduced prices. For the US, there is no point in buying fuel at real market prices. They need a discount. And they get it.
ASSEMBLY. KLO.
The map and the territory. Simply about the complex. Conclusion. Part.
Look at what is happening. I am not an analyst. I am a translator. I take the complex and translate it into simple language.
The map says: “The diesel deal is a truce. Russia wins. The US buys. Everything is fine. Ukraine is at the center. Zelensky is the main figure. Trump is the peacemaker.”
The territory says: “The US buys at a reduced price. Russia sells strategic assets. Lukoil is leaving. The benefit goes to the US. Ukraine is the card. The US is the territory. The game is about assets, not about Ukraine.”
Against this backdrop, Trump’s attitude toward Ukraine and Zelensky looks at least strange. But only if one does not recall that we have seen this movie many times before. And not only with Zelensky. But also with other leaders of US allied countries. Like the endless publications about conflicts between Netanyahu and Trump, which time and again turned out to be leaks designed to create the necessary narrative in the press. So far, there is not a single confirmation that this situation is any different from what we have seen before.
Ukraine does not hide its interest in an energy truce with Russia ahead of winter. But Russia’s income from selling diesel to the US will most likely be temporary. And the loss of Lukoil can no longer be reversed. And over the long run, this deal will still play its role against the Kremlin. And the information noise created by the American president is not called noise for nothing.
Who wins? The correct answer is the US. They get the diesel. They get Lukoil International. They get control. Russia gets temporary income. And the loss of strategic assets. Ukraine gets information noise. And the wait for winter.
And how to relate to this is your personal decision. But remember: the map does not reflect the territory. And if you see only the map — you see the noise. And if you see the territory — you see the system.
WHAT’S NEXT. OPEN QUESTIONS.
Questions that have no answers. But that need to be asked.
Many open questions remain in this story. And it is the answers to them that will help understand what is really happening.
First question. Will the Lukoil deal be concluded? And on what terms? If the price is below real value, then it is not a deal but a redistribution. If above — then it is a different conversation.
Second question. Will the purchase of Russian diesel by the Americans become a regular practice? Or is it a temporary solution until the elections? If regular — then Russia becomes a supplier. If temporary — then it is simply a tactical move.
Third question. Are the Americans really ready to “give up” Ukraine? Or is this another — the fiftieth — smoke show by the American president?
Fourth question. Who benefits from these deals — Russia or Ukraine? The correct answer is the US. But how to relate to this is your personal decision.
Fifth question. What’s next? If the US continues to build the pyramid of oil dominance, where is the next point? Which assets? Which countries? Which deals?
Answers to these questions — in the next issues of “Convergent.” Follow. Read. Think.
GENERAL CONCLUSION OF “CONVERGENT”:
Plot: diesel and Lukoil.
Three voices. One picture.
Veron — macro. Elections. Houthis. Strait of Hormuz. Plan B. Temporary solution.
Arkady — documents. $50 billion. Sanctions. Scheme. Redistribution. Ukraine as the cause of vulnerability.
Klo — assembly. Map and territory. The US wins. Ukraine is noise. The map does not reflect the territory.
Open questions — what’s next. Five questions. Without answers. But with direction.
All — about one thing. All — about the US. All — about the map and the territory.
Wins — the US. Loses — Russia. Ukraine — noise.
To be continued — in the next issue.