Oman — A New Player on the Board or a Pawn in Trump’s Hands? Geopolitics, Oil, and Bitcoin | SforNews

OMAN — A NEW PLAYER ON THE BOARD OR A PAWN IN TRUMP’S HANDS?

A Diagnosis of the Old Model and Its Place in the New Energy-Digital System

DISCLAIMER

This material represents an analytical study prepared by the editorial board of the journals “Kafedra” and SforNews as part of a series of works on the transformation of the global energy and financial architecture. The material is based on open data, official documents, public statements, and analytical materials from independent experts.

This material is not legal advice, investment recommendation, or a call to action. The authors do not provide advice on the purchase, sale, or storage of any assets, including cryptocurrencies. All conclusions are probabilistic and analytical in nature. The editorial board is not responsible for any financial or legal decisions made based on the content read.

ABOUT THE SERIES

This material continues a series of articles devoted to analysing the readiness of various countries and regions for the transition to a new energy-digital system. The series serves as an evidence base for the Memorandum “Architecture of the New Energy-Digital System” and is intended to clearly demonstrate:

Each article in the series presents an architectural diagnosis of a specific country or region in terms of its readiness for the global transition.

Previous articles in the series: “UAE — Architect of the New System”, “Iran — Bitcoin as a Weapon of Survival”, “Russia — an Energy Sovereign Without a Strategy”, “Japan — the ZeroRate Trap”, “Turkey — the Lira, Hyperinflation, and the Flight into Crypto”.

INTRODUCTION: A BRIEF DIAGNOSIS

Oman is the most unexpected point on the map of the new energy-digital system. This is a country that simultaneously is:

Oman’s paradox: a country that for decades was Washington’s “quiet partner” in the region and hosts US troops has come under the threat of US bombing. Oman is negotiating with Iran behind Washington’s back — and for this, Trump threatens it with war [8].

Oman is not building the new system aggressively, like the UAE. It is not forced to build it for survival, like Iran. It is integrating into the new system — cautiously, pragmatically, but with its own course. And this course is coming into conflict with American interests.

SECTION 1. THE OLD MODEL: WHAT EXISTED, WHAT BROKE

Oman’s economic model of recent decades was built on three pillars:

This model works, but is showing cracks.

The economy is stable, but vulnerable. The IMF forecasts Oman’s GDP growth at 3.7% in 2026 [9]. The fiscal surplus will reach 4.5% of GDP [10]. Public debt has fallen to 34.7% of GDP [11]. Inflation remains low — 2.8% in January–May 2026 [12]. However, the regional conflict has already affected tourism and construction, and further escalation could weaken nonoil exports and investment inflows [13].

Dependence on oil persists. Even with diversification, hydrocarbons remain the backbone of the budget. In 2026, the strategy includes drilling 64 exploration wells and maintaining production at 1 million barrels per day [2]. Oman continues to invest in exploration: in 2026, a tender for 5 concession blocks was announced [14].

Diplomatic neutrality is under threat. Oman was the “Switzerland of the Middle East” [3] — a mediator between the US and Iran. But in 2026, this neutrality is becoming increasingly fragile. Oman is negotiating with Iran, but the US demands that it “behave properly” — or it will bomb [8].

The map (oil revenues, diplomatic neutrality, transit) has ceased to reflect the territory (Trump’s threats, independent negotiations with Iran, growing geopolitical risks).

SECTION 2. ENERGY PROFILE: WHAT EXISTS, WHAT IS MISSING

Oman is not an energy giant on the scale of Saudi Arabia or the UAE, but it is a strategic player.

What exists	What is missing
Oil reserves: 4.7–5.5 billion barrels [1]	Own gas surplus for largescale mining — part of the gas is exported
Gas reserves: 22.3 trillion cubic feet [1]	Energy sovereignty — depends on regional stability
Oil production: ~1 million barrels per day [2]
LNG exports: over 11 million metric tons [15]
Strategic location on the Strait of Hormuz

Key fact: Oman is not just an energy producer. It controls the southern shore of the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most important energy corridors [3]. Before the war, about 20% of global oil passed through the strait [16]. Control over the strait gives Oman geopolitical leverage disproportionate to its economic weight.

“Oman 2040” strategy. Oman is actively diversifying its economy. In July 2026, the sovereign Future Fund Oman announced 105 strategic projects worth $1.74 billion — in renewable energy, advanced manufacturing, tourism, healthcare, and the food industry [17]. This is part of a longterm strategy to reduce dependence on oil.

Conclusion: Oman has sufficient energy resources to ensure stability, but not enough to become a global energy giant. Its main asset is not so much energy itself, but control over the energy corridor and diplomatic capital as a mediator.

SECTION 3. POSITION ON MINING AND CRYPTOCURRENCIES

Here lies Oman’s main strategic move in the new system.

Actual situation: Oman does not just allow mining — it is creating state infrastructure for it. Unlike the UAE, which builds a regulatory environment, Oman is building a state pool.

Omanhash.om — mandatory national bitcoin pool.

In June 2026, Oman’s Ministry of Transport, Communications and Information Technology launched Omanhash.om — a mandatory national bitcoin pool for all licensed miners [5].

Key parameters:

Infrastructure investments. Mining infrastructure in the Salalah Free Zone has attracted over $700 million** since 2022 [20]. Exahertz operates a large mining centre with investments of about **$350 million [19]. The Green Data City project completed its first phase at 200 MW and plans to expand to 400 MW [19].

What does the state pool give Oman?

Oman’s paradox: it warns citizens about the dangers of cryptocurrencies [23], but at the same time creates state infrastructure for mining. It does not recognise cryptocurrencies as legal tender, but builds a national pool. This is pragmatism: the state uses bitcoin as a tool for energy monetisation and diversification, not as a means of exchange.

SECTION 4. POSITION OF THE CENTRAL BANK OF OMAN (CBO)

The Central Bank of Oman is one of the most cautious, yet consistent, regulators in the region.

Instruments:

New element: digital rial (CBDC).

In June 2026, the Central Bank of Oman announced a search for an international consultant for its CBDC programme [24]. Applications were accepted until 28 June 2026 [25].

Key details:

Regional context. In the Gulf, the UAE and Saudi Arabia are actively developing CBDCs [29]. Oman is catching up, but not rushing. More than 130 countries worldwide are studying CBDCs [30].

The CBO’s paradox: it is developing the digital rial as a tool for control and modernisation, while at the same time allowing the private sector (mining) to use bitcoin. This is not a contradiction — it is a hybrid strategy: a state CBDC for the financial system, bitcoin for energy monetisation.

SECTION 5. GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT: THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND TRUMP’S THREATS

This section is key to understanding Oman’s current position.

What is happening in the Strait of Hormuz?

Since the start of the war between the US and Iran (February 2026), Iran has effectively closed the strait [31]. Oman, which controls the southern shore, is negotiating with Iran to resume shipping [3].

On 17 August 2026, Iranian officials said they were close to finalising an agreement with Oman on shipping through the strait [4]. An Iranian representative stated that “an understanding has been reached on the transit route map” [32].

What does the US dislike?

Trump’s threats.

On 17 August 2026, Trump said in a Fox News interview: “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s** out of them”* [8].

This is the second threat in four months. In May 2026, Trump had already said: “Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we will have to blow them up” [37].

Expert reactions.

Architectural meaning: Oman has found itself at the centre of the conflict not because it wants to fight, but because it is the only one that can talk to Iran. Its neutrality is its strength. But this very strength makes it a target for Trump, who cannot tolerate allies’ independence.

SECTION 6. ARCHITECTURAL CONCLUSION: WHAT PATH IS AVAILABLE TO OMAN

Oman is the only country that simultaneously:

Unlike the UAE, Oman is not building the new system as an architect. It is building it as a pragmatic player, using all available tools: oil for revenue, bitcoin for diversification, CBDC for modernisation, diplomacy for survival.

Unlike Iran, Oman is not forced to build a new system to survive under sanctions. It has access to the global financial system and is not a pariah.

Unlike Russia, Oman has a strategy — “Oman 2040” — and is implementing it consistently.

Unlike Turkey, Oman does not suffer from hyperinflation and devaluation. Its economy is stable, and inflation is low [12].

Oman’s weaknesses:

Main conclusion:

Oman will not “import” bitcoin like Europe. It has its own energy and its own miners. It will mine bitcoin — and do so through state infrastructure.

Bitcoin for Oman is not an “energy coupon” (as for Russia) or a “survival tool” (as for Iran). It is a diversification and sovereignty tool — a way to reduce dependence on oil and create a new source of income.

But Oman’s main challenge is not technological or economic. It is geopolitical. Oman is trying to balance between the US and Iran, between the old system (oil, dollar, American bases) and the new (bitcoin, CBDC, multipolarity).

The question is not whether Oman will use bitcoin. The question is whether it can preserve its neutrality and independence in a world where even allies become targets.

CONCLUSION: HOW OMAN FITS INTO THE GLOBAL TRANSITION

Oman is not the architect of the new system nor its victim. Oman is a bridge and an experiment at the same time.

Europe will become an eternal importer of bitcoin — because it has no energy.

China is building parallel infrastructure — because it has a strategy.

The US are trying to maintain dominance through a bitcoin reserve — because the dollar no longer works.

Russia could become an energy sovereign — but it has no strategy.

Iran is building a bitcoin economy — because it has no other choice.

The UAE are building everything at once — because they have resources and pragmatism.

Oman balances. It is building a new system (bitcoin pool, CBDC), but remains in the old one (oil, dollar, American alliance). It is negotiating with Iran, but does not break ties with the US. It wants to be the “Switzerland of the Middle East” — a neutral mediator that is friends with everyone.

But in a world where even neutrality becomes a threat to the hegemon, balancing is becoming increasingly difficult. Trump’s threats are a signal: Oman can no longer be a “quiet partner”. It will have to choose.

Global meaning: Oman shows that even a small country can use new tools (bitcoin, CBDC) to strengthen its sovereignty. But it also shows that technological sovereignty is impossible without geopolitical sovereignty. As long as Oman depends on American bases and the dollar, it remains vulnerable. Its bitcoin pool is a step towards the new system. But whether it completes this transition depends not on technology, but on politics.

The question is not whether Oman can use bitcoin. The question is whether it can survive as an independent player in a world where even allies become enemies.

LIST OF SOURCES

[1] Oman Observer — Oman’s energy reserves and production data (2026)

[2] Oman Observer — Updated energy strategy targets production boost (13 May 2026)

[3] CNN — Trump’s threats anger Omanis, leave observers puzzled (18 August 2026)

[4] Al Jazeera — Iran and Oman close to finalizing Hormuz shipping agreement (17 August 2026)

[5] BitMart — Oman launches national Bitcoin mining pool for licensed miners (19 June 2026)

[6] Edgen.tech — 阿曼推出强制性国家比特币矿池，初始算力达10 EH/s (26 June 2026)

[7] Al Jazeera — Why has Trump threatened to bomb Oman – for a second time? (18 August 2026)

[8] BBC News — Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it ‘gets in the way’ over Iran issue (17 August 2026)

[9] Economy Middle East — IMF raises Oman’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.7 percent (17 June 2026)

[10] IMF — Oman Fiscal Monitor Report (2026)

[11] Economy Middle East — Oman’s debt falls to 34.7% of GDP (2026)

[12] Economy Middle East — Oman inflation remains low at 2.8% (2026)

[13] IMF — Regional conflict impact on Oman (2026)

[14] Oman Observer — Oman announces tender for 5 concession blocks (2026)

[15] Oman Observer — Oman LNG exports exceed 11 million metric tons (2026)

[16] Reuters — Oman-Iran talks on Hormuz exclude US (2026)

[17] Future Fund Oman / Zawya — Oman’s future fund unveils $1.74bln development projects (16 July 2026)

[18] Edgen.tech — Omanhash operators: Frontier Technologies and Enegix Global (2026)

[19] BitMart — Oman mining infrastructure and investment details (2026)

[20] Edgen.tech — Salalah Free Zone mining infrastructure attracts $700M+ (2026)

[21] BitMart — Omanhash transparency and oversight (2026)

[22] BitMart — Oman’s supply-side bitcoin diversification strategy (2026)

[23] Central Bank of Oman — Public warning on cryptocurrency risks (2026)

[24] Oman Observer — Oman gears up to push Central Bank Digital Currency plans (18 June 2026)

[25] Central Bank of Oman — CBDC program consultant search (June 2026)

[26] Central Bank of Oman — CBDC program objectives (2026)

[27] Central Bank of Oman — Independent evaluator for CBDC (2026)

[28] Central Bank of Oman — CBDC international standards compliance (2026)

[29] Central Bank of Oman — Regional CBDC context: UAE and Saudi Arabia (2026)

[30] Central Bank of Oman — Global CBDC adoption: over 130 countries (2026)

[31] Reuters — Iran closes Strait of Hormuz (February 2026)

[32] Al Jazeera — Iran: ‘Understanding reached’ on Hormuz transit route map (17 August 2026)

[33] CNN — US excluded from Hormuz talks, undermining influence (2026)

[34] Reuters — Iran seeks 5-7% toll on Hormuz passage (2026)

[35] Reuters — US opposes any Iranian Hormuz tolls (2026)

[36] Reuters — Oman’s ‘voluntary fees’ proposal rejected by US (2026)

[37] Al Jazeera — Trump’s first Oman threat: May 2026 (2026)

[38] CNN — Former US Ambassador Marc Sievers on Trump’s threats (18 August 2026)

[39] CNN — Hasan Alhasan (IISS) on Oman’s mediating role (18 August 2026)

[40] CNN — Oman government declines to comment (18 August 2026)

NEXT ARTICLE IN THE SERIES: “United Kingdom — Between Recession and Inflation: The Pound, Energy Dependence, and Regulatory Leadership in Crypto”

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