The Old World Is Dead: Anatomy of Collapse and How to Protect Your Savings in 2026

THE OLD WORLD IS DEAD: ANATOMY OF COLLAPSE AND WHY WE DIDN’T NOTICE EVERYTHING BREAKING

Updated Version. June 2026.

Instead of an introduction: what we feel even when we don’t read the news

Background anxiety cannot be silenced by a mortgage, a stable salary, or even a six-figure bank balance. It didn’t come today or yesterday. It accumulated over the years, like tension before a storm. And now, in the middle of 2026, we all find ourselves at the epicenter of a storm that no one predicted — because they tried to predict using old methods.

This is not a crisis. This is a change of reality.

The old world did not break temporarily. It ended. And we didn’t notice it, because we got used to measuring life with money, and money as an indicator of health. But the economy is only an echo. And we listened to the echo and thought it was the voice.

June 2026 has added new colors to this picture: the Iran truce crashed oil, the budget hole reached 6 trillion rubles, and the authorities simultaneously eased capital outflows for “their own” while blocking payments to unfriendly creditors. Everything described below is no longer a forecast. It is a reality unfolding before our eyes.

Part 1. Bugs accumulated for years. We didn’t see them

Mentor Silicari Ajahary, in his article “Intelligence as an Interface,” suggests looking at the world as a multiplayer game. Every game has rules. They are usually written in the license agreement. No one reads them before starting. Later, when something goes wrong, players write to support. And they are told: “You missed clause 7.3.2.”

In reality, the rules have different names: laws, agreements, ethics, cause-and-effect relationships. Almost no one reads them either. They are broken for decades. And for years, the system accumulates bugs.

What bugs did the old system accumulate?

First bug: money became the meaning, not the tool. Instead of serving exchange, they became the goal. People stopped asking “why?” It was enough to ask “how much?” It’s like in a game: grinding gold endlessly, forgetting why you entered in the first place.

Second bug: everything was bought. Officials, partner loyalty, professional devotion, even personal relationships. All of this rested on cash flows. As soon as the flows dried up — and this began back in 2022 — the entire structure cracked.

Third bug: the management system became unwieldy. Budget cycles are three years. Reality changes in three months. Corporate KPIs are counted in quarters, and technology in weeks. Sooner or later, the gap had to kill the system.

Fourth bug: the illusion of security. Money seemed like a shield. It seemed that if you earned enough, you could move to a quiet harbor, open an account in a reliable bank, and breathe easy. But over the past two years, the world has shown: a bank account does not stop a rocket. Real estate does not provide shelter. Move wherever you want — there is nowhere to hide.

Part 2. How the bubble bursts: stages of agony

The agony of the old system is not a single day. It is a sequence of blows, each weakening the frame.

Stage 1. Blockage of financial “vessels”

“The economy is not an independent organism. It is derivative of events, decisions, resource flows. Money is only the circulatory system,” writes the mentor.

In 2022, a massive blockage began. Some countries froze the reserves of others. Banks stopped processing payments even where there were no sanctions — simply out of fear. Trust built over decades collapsed in months.

Marker 1. The freezing of the Central Bank of Russia’s assets worth hundreds of billions of dollars is an unprecedented event that did not even occur during world wars.

Marker 2. Foreign banks refuse Russian business transactions without formal sanctions — the system has become unpredictable even for those who created it.

Marker 3. Russia stopped paying leases for hundreds of aircraft. Lessors cannot get them back. Lawsuits proceed, but decisions are not enforced. Both sides act as if there are no more rules.

Stage 2. Rupture of internal connections

When the circulatory system is clogged, organs begin to suffer. In the Russian economy, these are entire sectors.

Marker 4. The construction sector has stalled. Sales of new buildings in major cities fell by a third or more. Developers who took out loans at the old rate cannot service them. The safety margin has been exhausted.

Marker 5. Russian Railways — the country’s key artery — posted a loss for the first time in decades. Debt is about 4 trillion rubles. The investment program has been cut. Assets are being sold off.

Marker 6. Small deposits of the population began to melt. In three months — almost a trillion rubles in withdrawals. People are not taking money to banks, but withdrawing cash. Large deposits, on the contrary, are growing. The split: the poor take the last, the rich accumulate.

Stage 3. The illusion of management

The authorities are trying to patch holes. But old tools do not work.

Marker 7. The Central Bank’s key rate remains high (14–16%), although weekly inflation has already gone negative. The regulator reacts to the past, not the future.

Marker 8. The tax burden is growing. The Federal Tax Service has begun blocking not only accounts and property, but also brands, patents, and trademarks.

Marker 9. Enterprises that still generate profitability are subjected to a new “tribute”: taxes, fees, duties. The authorities feed themselves by redistributing a resource that is no longer being created in the previous volume.

Stage 4. Loss of external supports

At the same time, the international ties that held the system together are collapsing.

Marker 10. A Kazakhstani court allowed 1.4 billion dollars to be recovered from Gazprom in favor of Naftogaz. Kazakhstan is not the West, but it took this step.

Marker 11. Azerbaijan is becoming a new gas hub for Europe. Same gas, same pipelines, but money is already going outside the Russian system.

Marker 12. One of the largest oil magnates is transferring capital to Azerbaijan. Buying a bank, investing in the shelf, creating media.

Stage 5. Flight into new assets

When old savings devalue or freeze, people look for new tools.

Marker 13. Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies have become a refuge. Not because they are “reliable,” but because they are harder to take away, freeze, or tax.

Marker 14. The digital financial assets market in Russia grew 34 times in two years (to 690 billion rubles by early 2026). But 62% of placements are ultra-short-term instruments of up to one month.

Part 3. Diagnosis by sectors and companies

“The old world is dead” is not a metaphor. It is a diagnosis that can be read from the balance sheets of the largest companies. Below are not just numbers, but symptoms of systemic decay. Data for 2025, but their dynamics only accelerated in 2026 after the Iran truce and the oil crash.

Banking sector

Sberbank

Key indicator: net profit under IFRS — 1.706 trillion rubles (+8.4% year-on-year), return on equity — 22.1%.

Dynamics: net interest income grew by 17.7% — to 3.1 trillion rubles due to growth in earning assets.

Symptom: growth while disconnected from the global system. The bank is cut off from SWIFT, its international assets are frozen. It has become a cash register where old money continues to circulate in a closed loop, but without access to the global bloodstream.

June 2026: amid the oil collapse and growing devaluation expectations, Sberbank remains a “safe haven” for public sector employees and pensioners, but its profit is an illusion created by high rates and the lack of alternatives. Real risks: household debt and corporate defaults if oil falls to $40.

VTB

Key indicator: net profit under IFRS — 502.1 billion rubles (-8.9% year-on-year), matching the 500 billion target.

Dynamics: loan portfolio grew by 3.1% — to 24.5 trillion rubles. Retail fell from 33% to 30% of the portfolio.

Symptom: retail is shrinking, people are not taking new loans. The bank is losing touch with the population. Key symptom: the retail loan portfolio continues to decline, while reserves grow.

June 2026: VTB is one of the main holders of OFZ bonds. With rising bond yields and devaluation, its portfolio could generate billions in losses.

Oil and gas sector

Gazprom

Key indicator (RAS): net profit — 11.3 billion rubles versus a loss of 1 trillion rubles a year earlier.

Paradox: under IFRS, profit amounted to 1.3 trillion rubles (+7% year-on-year) — due to exchange rate and tax differences, not due to business.

Symptom: Gazprom is no longer an exporter, but an internal distributor of losses and profits through tariffs. Accounts receivable — 1.14 trillion rubles. Total debt remained at 6.7 trillion rubles. The hole is plugged through domestic prices, which only worsens the crisis in other sectors.

June 2026: falling oil and gas prices, along with the risk of losing external markets (Asia may switch to Iranian LNG), make Gazprom one of the main candidates for financial collapse. Transit through Ukraine continues, but its future is in question.

Lukoil

Key indicator: IFRS loss — 1.06 trillion rubles versus a profit of 848.5 billion a year earlier.

Dynamics: revenue fell by 15% — to 3.8 trillion rubles. Net debt decreased by 78% — to 226 billion rubles.

Symptom: the trillion-ruble loss was the result of writing off foreign assets worth 1.667 trillion rubles. This is not a management error, but the price of broken global chains. At the same time, a paradox: the board of directors recommended paying dividends (278 rubles per share), as if there had been no loss.

June 2026: Lukoil is a private company with the best corporate governance, but its dependence on export prices and the Urals discount (which widened to $7–10 per barrel in June) makes it vulnerable. Dividends may be revised.

Rosneft

Key indicator: IFRS net profit — 293 billion rubles (-73% year-on-year).

Dynamics: revenue fell by 18.8%, EBITDA — by 28.3%. Net debt/EBITDA ratio — 1.5x.

Symptom: the business was pressured by everything at once — oil prices, a strong ruble, the Central Bank rate, sanctions. Interest expenses increased 4 times. The company was cut off from life support systems and forced to pay even more for “crutches.”

June 2026: Rosneft is the main beneficiary of high oil prices, but also the main risk if they collapse. If Urals falls below $50, the company may face debt service problems, especially in foreign currency.

Surgutneftegaz

Key indicator: RAS loss — 251.2 billion rubles versus a profit of 923.3 billion a year earlier.

Symptom: the company, known for its multi-billion dollar “piggy bank,” went deep into the red. In the first half of the year, the loss was 452.7 billion rubles. But the main thing is not the loss. The main thing is that the company has almost completely stopped disclosing its reports. There are dashes in the balance sheet lines. Surgutneftegaz has gone into the shadows. What is this, if not a fear of showing a hole in the “piggy bank”?

June 2026: amid ruble devaluation, Surgutneftegaz’s “currency piggy bank” could have brought giant profits. But the lack of transparency and possible write-offs create risks for minority shareholders.

Tatneft

Key indicator: RAS net profit — 145.8 billion rubles (-42% year-on-year).

Dynamics: revenue fell by 11.8% — to 1.38 trillion rubles. Gross profit fell by 25.16%.

Symptom: the company traditionally pays dividends of at least 50% of profits. But if there is no profit — there is nothing to share. At the same time, capital expenditures fell by 20% (from 171 to 136 billion rubles) — the business is preparing for a long stagnation, not growth.

June 2026: Tatneft is more stable due to regional support from Tatarstan, but its dependence on the domestic market and exports through the Caspian makes it vulnerable to logistical risks.

Gazprom Neft

Key indicator: net profit for 2025 — 245.8 billion rubles, a twofold drop.

Symptom: in the first half of the year, the foreign exchange loss amounted to 43 billion rubles (3 times more than a year earlier). Free cash flow (FCF) went negative by 305 billion rubles — the company stopped generating live money; it is spending faster than it earns.

June 2026: Gazprom Neft is a subsidiary of Gazprom with good diversification, but its negative cash flow means investments in new projects will be frozen.

Metallurgy and mining

Severstal

Key indicator: IFRS net profit — 32 billion rubles (-79% year-on-year), revenue fell by 14%, EBITDA — by 42%.

Key symptom: free cash flow (FCF) went negative by 30.5 billion rubles versus +96.8 billion rubles a year earlier. Net debt turned positive and amounted to 21.7 billion rubles. The company no longer generates live money. Without money — no dividends, no investments.

June 2026: Severstal is one of the main beneficiaries of domestic steel demand, but the decline in the construction sector and export duties make it vulnerable. The halt of major infrastructure projects in 2026 will hit the company.

NLMK

Key indicator: net profit — 63.1 billion rubles (-48% year-on-year), revenue — 831.4 billion rubles (-15%).

Dynamics: gross profit collapsed from 484.3 billion to 239.9 billion rubles. EBITDA fell by 43%.

Symptom: EBITDA margin fell to 16.9% from 26.2% a year earlier. The board of directors recommended not paying dividends for 2025.

June 2026: NLMK suffers from falling demand in construction and high key rates. With ruble devaluation, the company may gain a currency advantage, but domestic demand remains weak.

MMK

Key indicator: net loss for 2025 — 1.37 billion rubles versus a profit of 3.14 billion a year earlier.

Dynamics: in Q1 2026, revenue fell by 18.6% — to 129 billion rubles, EBITDA almost halved, profitability fell below 7%.

Symptom: negative trends in the Russian steel market — declining sales volumes and realization prices. Cost inflation (indexation of payroll, electricity, gas, rail transportation) is killing margins.

June 2026: MMK is a classic example of a company being killed by internal inflation and external pressure. Without cheap loans, investment is impossible.

Nornickel

Key indicator: net profit — 842 million dollars (+1.6%).

Dynamics: EBITDA grew by 12% to 2.63 billion dollars. Net debt increased by 22% since the beginning of the year to 10.5 billion dollars.

Symptom: external threats are growing. The US introduced effectively prohibitive duties on palladium: 132.83% anti-dumping + 109.1% countervailing. Total — 242%. Even if you have an excellent product, you will not be allowed to sell it in the premium market.

June 2026: Nornickel is one of the few that can benefit from ruble devaluation, as its revenue is in dollars. But prohibitive US duties and falling demand for palladium in the automotive industry make the company’s prospects uncertain.

Mechel

Key indicator: loss — 78.6 billion rubles (increased 2.5 times).

Diagnostic marker: net debt/EBITDA ratio jumped to 36.1x versus 4.6x a year earlier. Net debt rose to 279.3 billion rubles.

Symptom: at such a ratio, even under ideal conditions, the company would need 36 years to pay off its debts. Cash on the balance sheet — only 483 million rubles. Mechel is not a mining company, but a debt pit.

June 2026: Mechel is the clearest example of a “dead” company that the system cannot yet kill due to its social significance. But with the ruble collapsing and rates rising, the company may collapse completely.

Transport and logistics

Russian Railways

Key indicator: IFRS net profit — 2.2 billion rubles versus 50.7 billion a year earlier, a 22-fold drop.

Dynamics: revenue grew by 10.4% — to 3.6 trillion rubles. Freight traffic volume became the lowest in 16 years — 1.1 billion tons.

Symptom: revenue growth with falling physical volumes of transportation. The economy is not moving goods — it has stopped. Freight turnover is falling, but tariffs are rising, masking the real decline. The investment program is cut, debts are growing.

June 2026: Russian Railways is the country’s key artery, but it is clogged with clots. Falling freight traffic, rising tariffs, and debt burden (about 4 trillion rubles) make the company vulnerable.

Sovcomflot

Key indicator: IFRS loss — 648 million dollars versus a profit of 424 million a year earlier.

Dynamics: revenue fell by 30%.

Symptom: the company wrote off part of its fleet worth 550 million dollars — tankers could no longer be used or sold due to sanctions. Global logistics chains are finally broken. The old world can no longer transport its resources along old routes.

June 2026: Sovcomflot is a victim of the sanctions war. Its vessels cannot enter European ports, and risk insurance has become prohibitively expensive.

Retail and consumer sector

Magnit

Key indicator: net loss — 16.6 billion rubles versus a profit of 50 billion rubles a year earlier.

Dynamics: revenue grew by 15% — to 1.67 trillion rubles. Net debt reached 992 billion rubles (was 789 billion).

Symptom: revenue growth with a loss — the company sells more but earns less. All profit goes to debt servicing.

June 2026: Magnit is a classic example of a company “eaten” by inflation and high rates. As food prices rise, shoppers switch to discounters, and margins fall.

X5 Group

Key indicator: net profit — 83.1 billion rubles (-20% year-on-year).

Dynamics: turnover grew by 19%, but money did not increase.

Symptom: X5 is more stable than Magnit (debt burden lower — 0.9x versus 1.4x a year earlier), but the pressure of rates and taxes is killing margins across the sector. The discounter “Chizhik” shows growth, but this is market absorption, not development.

June 2026: X5 is one of the market leaders, but with falling real incomes of the population, its revenue may begin to decline.

Rusagro

Key indicator: net profit — 19.9 billion rubles (-37.5% year-on-year).

Dynamics: revenue grew by 16% — to 424 billion rubles due to the meat segment (+71%).

Symptom: business is coming under state control. The company is becoming state property — that is, a burden on the budget. When there is nothing to pay, the system confiscates what it cannot control.

June 2026: Rusagro is an example of how a successful private business becomes a “cash cow” for the state. Nationalization in a crisis is becoming a trend.

Diamonds and fertilizers

ALROSA

Key indicator: net profit — 36.2 billion rubles (+87% year-on-year).

Dynamics: EBITDA decreased by 26% — to 57.8 billion rubles. Free cash flow is negative.

Symptom: profit growth — exclusively due to the one-time sale of a stake in the Angolan Catoca project. Organically, the business is shrinking: revenue is falling, margins are declining, the diamond market is not growing.

June 2026: ALROSA depends on world diamond prices and sanctions restrictions. With falling demand in the US and Europe, the company may face a drop in revenue.

PhosAgro

Key indicator: net profit for the first half of the year — 75.5 billion rubles (+41.3% year-on-year).

Dynamics: revenue grew by 23.6% — to 298.6 billion rubles.

Symptom: fertilizers will always be in demand — this is a necessity of the new world. But the pressure of taxes and high rates is increasing.

June 2026: PhosAgro is one of the few sectors benefiting from rising world food prices. But domestic taxes and logistical problems are holding back growth.

Energy

Inter RAO

Key indicator: net profit for 2025 — 133.8 billion rubles (-9.2% year-on-year).

Dynamics: revenue is growing, but expenses are growing faster. Capital expenditures peaked in 2025.

Symptom: power generation is an inertial sector, but it too has been hit by pressure from rates and taxes.

June 2026: Inter RAO suffers from rising coal and gas prices, as well as restrictions on electricity exports.

Communications and state corporations

Rostelecom

Key indicator: net profit — 18.7 billion rubles (-22% year-on-year).

Dynamics: net debt grew by 4% — to 689.6 billion rubles. Debt servicing costs jumped by 64%.

Symptom: even telecommunications — the backbone of the old system — are beginning to stall under the weight of debts and interest payments.

June 2026: Rostelecom is important for the state, but its debt and dependence on imported equipment make it vulnerable.

Transneft

Key indicator: net profit — 226.1 billion rubles (-21% year-on-year).

Dynamics: profit tax jumped 2.5 times due to an increase in the rate to 40% for monopolies.

Symptom: even the oil transport monopoly, always considered untouchable, is feeling the pressure. The state is redistributing the leftovers.

June 2026: Transneft remains stable, but falling export volumes and rising taxes make its business less predictable.

Architectural conclusion on companies

Summarizing all indicators, we see a systemic pattern.

Banks earn on high rates, but lose contact with the real sector. Oil and gas show paradoxical losses against the backdrop of high prices — money goes to servicing debts and exchange rate differences. Metallurgy is dying from internal inflation and export barriers. Retail is hitting bottom due to falling real incomes. And state-owned companies — the last bastion — are beginning to collapse under the weight of debts and taxes.

All of them are ships sailing in a fog without navigation. Their captains know the reefs are close, but cannot change course because they were afraid to look at the map.

Part 4. June 2026: new blows accelerating the agony

In June 2026, three new factors were added to the processes described above, turning a “slow death” into a collapse.

Factor 1. Iran truce and oil crash

The US-Iran agreement lifted the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent fell from 98 to 88 dollars, Urals — to 80–82 dollars. Experts warn: if Iran refuses OPEC+ quotas, the alliance will fall apart, and oil could collapse to 30–40 dollars per barrel. For Russia’s budget, based on 60 dollars, this is a disaster. The deficit could exceed 15–20 trillion rubles.

Factor 2. Easing capital outflows for “own” and blocking for “others”

From July 1, citizens and companies will be able to withdraw up to 30 million rubles for foreign projects without Central Bank permission. At the same time, payments to creditors from unfriendly countries exceeding 10 million rubles per month are credited to special Type “C” accounts — effectively blocked. This creates a dual effect: “own” withdraw capital, “others” lose the ability to receive it.

Factor 3. Threat of OPEC+ disintegration

Iran may refuse quotas, citing the period of sanctions. If OPEC+ disintegrates, oil will collapse to 30–40 dollars per barrel. This is not a theory — it is a real risk that experts are warning about.

All three factors are links in one chain. They deprive the Russian economy of its last supports: oil revenues, trust in the jurisdiction, and the ability to service debts.

Part 5. Why money is no longer the meaning

“Stability is a trap. It conserves models that no longer respond to reality” — the mentor.

The crisis we are experiencing is unique. It is not like 1998, 2008, or 2014. Then the economy contracted, but then expanded. Today — deformation of structure, not size.

What is disappearing forever:

• A job for life. Professions devalue faster than you can retrain. The shelf life of skills is 2–3 years.
• Mortgage as a reliable plan. Rates are high, incomes are falling, debt is skyrocketing. Those who bought an apartment in 2023–2024 are selling it now at a loss.
• A foreign bank account as a guarantee of security. Freezes, blocks, compliance — your money may be unavailable at any time, even without sanctions.
• The vertical of power as a source of order. Bureaucracy cannot keep up with the speed of change. Decisions are made late. Improvisation beats the plan.

What is coming to replace it:

• The ability to retrain faster than skills reset.
• Reputation built on results, not position.
• Connections built on mutual trust, not gain.
• Clarity of thought in information noise.
• Willingness to act without guarantees, but with an understanding of the goal.

Part 6. We are all participants in a super-show

The mentor writes: “We are all in the front row of this super-show. Some will come out as actors, some as support staff, some will remain spectators. But we are all already participants.”

Spectators are those who continue to believe that everything will “sort itself out.” That easy money, low rates, and a stable exchange rate will return. They will wait and watch as others’ decisions determine their lives.

Support staff are those who execute but do not create. They know the world has broken, but they are afraid to deviate from the instructions. They will do what they are told until their functions are replaced by digital or AI.

Actors are those who understood: there is no old script. Improvisation is the only working tool. They create new connections, find new niches, negotiate where the system no longer exists. They do not wait for permission. They act.

Part 7. What to do right now: from diagnosis to action

The old world is dead. Not dying — already dead. Agony is the convulsions of a corpse. Do not confuse them with life.

The question is not about “surviving.” The question is about waking up as a player, not a character.

For those who want to preserve their savings:

• Stop looking for stability. It no longer exists. Look for adaptability, mobility, the ability to change.
• Change your currency. Not dollars, not euros, not rubles. Invest in skills, connections, reputation, health, clarity of thought.
• Diversify: cash rubles (for 3–6 months), physical gold, bitcoin on a hardware wallet (self-custody), commodity reserves.
• Create local mutual aid communities — neighborhood councils, cooperatives, barter networks. The centralized system no longer guarantees supplies.

For those who want to influence what is happening:

• Demand from the authorities public justification of decisions: where taxes go, why capital outflows are eased for some and blocked for others.
• Support independent analytical platforms that are not afraid to call things by their names.
• Participate in public discussions and convey your position to deputies and local administrations.

Instead of a conclusion: an invitation to reassemble

We cannot stop the collapse of the old world. But we can build a new one — on the ruins of the old. This requires not illusions, but sober analysis and readiness to act.

Kafedra — a place where knowledge restores power.
Economic Convergence — a platform where ideas turn into solutions.

If you have read this far — you are no longer a spectator. You are someone looking for answers. Subscribe to Kafedra — here we give not only diagnoses, but also roadmaps.

Three steps that will not save you, but will give you a foothold:

• Stop looking for stability. It no longer exists. Look for adaptability, mobility, the ability to change.
• Change your currency. Not dollars, not euros, not rubles. Invest in skills, connections, reputation, health, clarity of thought.
• Choose a role. Spectator, staff, or actor? No one will choose for you. The system only distributes those who have not chosen themselves.

The old world is dead. Welcome to the new one.

What to do right now?

Subscribe to Kafedra on Zen.
Read, reflect, discuss. Share with those who also want not to watch, but to act.

Your next step:
— Open the “Savings” tab in your banking app.
— Ask yourself: what will happen to this money if the ruble is devalued tomorrow?
— Start diversifying: cash, gold, bitcoin (self-custody), commodity reserves.

We do not make empty promises. We provide working models.
Change your perspective. Act.

This article was prepared by the editorial board of the journal “Kafedra” for participants of the Economic Convergence. Updated to reflect the events of June 2026. When quoting, a link to the original source is required.