Trump’s Secondary Sanctions: India First Target in Economic Crackdown on Russia

1 Aug, 2025
| Salome K

Trump launches secondary sanctions: India first target in economic pressure on Russia

On July 30, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced a new type of trade threat: secondary sanctions targeting countries that continue to trade with Russia. India is the first target, with higher tariffs as a warning—but China, Brazil, and Turkey are explicitly mentioned as the next targets. What exactly are these measures, which countries are in the picture, and what are the geopolitical and economic implications?

By our International Politics Editors – July 30, 2025

Strategic shift to secondary sanctions

Trump’s approach marks a shift in US sanctions strategy. Until now, the US has primarily targeted Russian companies, banks, and oligarchs. Secondary sanctions are now targeting third countries that are Russia’s economic lifelines.

India, which has drastically increased its imports of Russian oil since 2022, was chosen as the first example. On Trump’s social media platform, Truth Social, he stated that India “benefits enormously from cheap Russian oil and weapons” and that its trade barriers are “among the highest in the world.” By choosing a clear target, he aims to demonstrate the credibility of his threats.

India’s crucial role in Russian oil exports

Since the large-scale military actions in Ukraine in 2022, India has become one of the largest buyers of Russian fossil fuels. According to Bloomberg data, India will account for nearly 40% of Russian oil exports by 2025 , while China will consume about 50% . These massive purchases have helped Russia circumvent Western sanctions and keep its war economy afloat.

By targeting India, Trump is targeting Moscow’s Achilles’ heel: its energy export revenues. Analysts point out that a drop in Indian demand would force Russia to sell more oil at a discount to less stable markets, potentially reducing government revenues.

According to Trump, India is just the beginning. In recent speeches and interviews, he also mentioned China, Brazil, and Turkey as potential next targets. These countries, along with India, purchase more than 80% of all Russian energy commodities.

Brazil was already hit with a 50% tariff increase on exports to the US on July 25, 2025, as a “warning.”
China is specifically mentioned in a bill by Senator Lindsey Graham that would impose tariffs of up to 500% on countries that continue to import Russian energy.
Turkey , though a NATO member, remains a transit and import country for Russian oil and coal.

So far, South Africa has not been formally threatened with secondary sanctions, despite its role within the BRICS. However, Washington views the country as a vulnerable link in Russia’s alternative trading systems.

The Russian deadline: from 50 days to 10–12 days

Initially, on July 14, 2025, Trump issued a 50-day ultimatum to Moscow, with a deadline of September, to reach a peace agreement. He also threatened “very severe tariffs of up to 100%” on countries that continued to purchase Russian products.

But on July 28, 2025, he drastically sharpened his tone. During a press briefing at Mar-a-Lago, he announced he was shortening the deadline to 10 to 12 days, which would be August 8, 2025.

With India as its first target starting August 1st, Washington wants to make it clear that this policy is not a bluff. The stakes are high: Trump is betting that economic pressure works faster than diplomacy, but a failure could lead to a global trade war that extends far beyond Ukraine.

International reactions and resistance

The announcement of the secondary sanctions has drawn mixed reactions:

India , through its Ministry of Commerce and Industry, said it was “carefully studying the situation,” but top analyst Ajay Srivastava pointed to the unpredictability of US demands and indicated that India “sees no value in giving in to US pressure.”
China responded cautiously but called the US approach “economic intimidation”.

These reactions demonstrate the complexity of Trump’s approach: countries with significant interests in cheap Russian energy are not likely to abandon their trade flows. At the same time, the Western alliance is seeking to exert maximum economic pressure on Russia.

Possible consequences for the Russian economy

The secondary sanctions could have significant consequences for the Russian economy. Dependence on energy exports is high: oil and gas still account for over 40% of the federal budget. If India and other major consumers purchase less Russian oil and gas or demand higher risk premiums, this could lead to:

Loss of income for the state, putting pressure on social programs and military spending.
Greater dependence on China, which puts Moscow in a weaker negotiating position.
Higher transportation and insurance costs due to diversions to alternative markets.
Loss of investment and technological stagnation due to limited access to Western technology and services.

Experts warn that a combination of falling export revenues and rising costs could push Russia into a prolonged economic recession.

Crucial in the coming weeks

With the first secondary sanctions set to take effect on August 1, 2025, and a shortened deadline of 10–12 days, August will be a decisive month for Trump’s economic warfare.

The success of this strategy depends on two factors:

The willingness of countries like India and China to reduce their Russian imports.
The extent to which Russia comes under financial and political pressure.

If the pressure fails, there is a risk of further escalation towards large-scale trade conflicts, possibly with tariffs of up to 100% or even 500%, as advocated by some US senators.

For now, it is clear that global trade is entering a period of unprecedented tension, with economic coercion taking the place of traditional diplomacy