Global Status Quo: Finance, Energy, Food, Technology – 2026 Analysis

30 Jun, 2026
| Salome K

GLOBAL STATUS QUO: FINANCE, ENERGY, FOOD, TECHNOLOGY

Disclaimer:
This material is an analytical study prepared by the editorial board of Kafedra and SforNews magazines as part of a series of investigations into the new economic reality. It is based on open data, official documents, and hypothetical analysis. It does not constitute investment advice or a call to action. All conclusions are probabilistic in nature.

1. Financial Flows and Instruments

The Dollar – the Main Settlement Currency
The US dollar remains the undisputed leader in international settlements. In June 2026, its share in total SWIFT transaction volume reached 59.10% [1]. In March 2026, this figure briefly exceeded 51% [2]. The euro’s share in international payments via SWIFT fell to 21% – the lowest level in a decade [1]. The Chinese yuan’s share, according to data for June 2026, stood at 2.85% [1].

The dollar is used as a vehicle currency in transactions between third countries. Its share in international payments significantly exceeds the US share of global trade, making it a critically important network infrastructure [3].

Reserves: Slow Decline
The dollar’s share in global official reserves (IMF COFER) is declining, but extremely slowly:

• End of 2025 – 56.8% [3]

• Q1 2026 – 57.9% [4]

• Q2 2026 – 56.32% [5]

The decline in the dollar’s share is gradual and driven primarily by political decisions of individual countries, rather than broad economic rejection of the US currency [3].

Alternative Payment Systems: CIPS on the Rise
China’s CIPS system shows significant growth. In March 2026, the average daily transaction volume reached 920.5 billion yuan ($133.5 billion), up 20% year-on-year [6]. The number of CIPS participants grew to 1,791 as of the end of Q1 2026 [6]. However, CIPS volumes remain significantly smaller than global SWIFT turnover [6].

2. Energy Security

The Strait of Hormuz – the Main Factor of 2026
A significant portion of global oil supplies passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily. The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran (since February 2026) has created a real supply shock [7][8].

G7 and Hormuz: At the summit in Évian, France (June 17, 2026), G7 countries confirmed their commitment to accelerate the diversification of energy supply routes and increase energy reserves to reduce global vulnerability to the Strait of Hormuz [7]. G7 leaders reaffirmed the right of free passage through the Strait of Hormuz without restrictions [7].

Energy Investments
According to the IEA (May 2026):

• Total investment in the global energy sector – $3.4 trillion [9]

• About $2.2 trillion is directed to power systems: grids, storage, low-emission fuels, renewables, nuclear [9]

• About $1.2 trillion – to oil, gas, and coal [9]

• Oil investment – below $500 billion (third consecutive year of decline) [9]

• Gas investment – $330 billion (decade-high) [9]

• Grid investment – about $550 billion (+17% year-on-year) [9]

Funding priorities are determined by energy security amid the Middle East conflict [9].

Petrodollar
Despite talk of the “petroyuan,” the dollar remains dominant in the global energy financial system. The surge in yuan settlements was short-lived; volumes have returned to normal [10].

3. Food Security

Systemic Risks
The global food system faces a double threat: supply chain disruptions and extreme weather events [11]. FAO warns of the risk of a global food crisis due to supply chain failures [12].

The Strait of Hormuz affects not only oil but also food: supplies of fertilisers and agricultural products pass through it [12]. Countries in Africa and Asia that are fully dependent on imported resources are at greatest risk [12].

System Vulnerability
Global food security depends on tightly integrated international supply chains: natural gas – mineral fertilisers – staple crops. Disruptions in one link cascade to others [12][13].

FAO recommends [12]:

• Eliminate export restrictions (especially on energy, fertilisers, and agricultural materials)

• Exempt food aid flows from trade barriers

• Create strategic reserves

4. Technological Security

Semiconductors – a New Strategic Resource
Semiconductors have become the main battleground for technological dominance. In January 2026, President Trump imposed 25% tariffs on advanced computing chips under Section 232 – the national security law [14]. The US is tightening export controls to prevent the supply of advanced chips and equipment to China via third countries [15].

Pax Silica: Coordinating Allies
The US’s main instrument for coordinating technological security is the Pax Silica initiative (“The Silicon World”), launched in December 2025 [16]. This is a strategic initiative to create secure supply chains in semiconductors, AI, and critical minerals [16].

Following the second Pax Silica summit in Washington (June 26–27, 2026), the number of participants reached 35 countries [16]. New participants: Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, El Salvador, the European Union, Germany, Greece, Kazakhstan, the Netherlands, and Panama [16].

Among the participants is the Netherlands, home to ASML – the world’s only manufacturer of equipment for producing the most advanced chips [16]. This gives the US leverage over a key link in the global semiconductor chain [16][17].

Critical Minerals
The G7 at the Évian summit (June 2026) confirmed a strategy to diversify critical mineral supply chains [18]. The goal is to reduce dependence on a single supplier of rare earth elements to below 60% by 2030 [18].

Since the start of 2026, 195 projects worth a total of €64 billion in investment have been implemented in critical mineral value chains [18].

5. Key Risks for Countries (Ranked by Threat Level)

🔴 RISK 1: BLOCKADE OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ
For whom: Global economy as a whole, China (60% of oil from the Middle East), India, South Korea, Japan, Europe. A blockade would drive oil prices up 30–50%, causing an inflationary shock worldwide and triggering a crisis in energyimporting countries. For China and India, this means a widening current account deficit and pressure on national currencies. For Europe – a worsening of the energy crisis [7][8].

🔴 RISK 2: SEMICONDUCTOR SUPPLY CHAIN BREAK
For whom: Global electronics, automotive, defence industries, China, Taiwan, South Korea, the US. A halt in supplies through the Taiwan Strait would disrupt global semiconductor production within 2–4 weeks [14][19]. For China, this would derail technological modernisation. For the US – a national security threat [14]. The cost of restoring supply chains is estimated at $400–500 billion [19].

🟡 RISK 3: FORCED DEDOLLARISATION
For whom: Russia, Iran, China (in the short term), the global economy (in the long term). A forced abandonment of the dollar in settlements would lead to the collapse of global payment infrastructure, higher transaction costs, and lower international trade volumes [3][10]. For the US – loss of seigniorage (about $150 billion per year) and leverage [3]. For China – increased exchange rate risks when trading with third countries [10].

🟡 RISK 4: TECHNOLOGICAL FRAGMENTATION
For whom: Global economy, EU, China, developing countries. The split of the world into technology blocs (Pax Silica vs China) would drive up technology costs, duplicate R&D, and slow innovation [16][17]. For the EU – the risk of remaining a junior partner to the US [17]. For China – isolation from global supply chains and loss of access to advanced chips [15][16]. For developing countries – lack of access to technology and widening digital inequality [17].

🟢 RISK 5: FOOD CRISIS
For whom: Africa, the Middle East, South Asia, the global economy. An escalating crisis would drive food prices up 30–40%, increase the number of hungry people by 50–100 million, trigger political destabilisation in foodimporting countries, and increase migration [12][13]. The greatest risk – for countries in Africa and Asia that are fully dependent on imported food and fertilisers [12].

6. Scenarios

SCENARIO 1: Status Quo Maintained (Probability 45%)
The dollar retains dominance; dedollarisation remains a political narrative unsupported by economic realities. The US maintains control over the financial system through stablecoin regulation and coordination of allies in the technology sphere.

Conditions: Absence of new geopolitical shocks; CIPS grows but remains marginal; Pax Silica coordinates but does not create a single bloc.

Winners: US, global corporations, dollarreserve holding countries.

SCENARIO 2: Split into Blocs (Probability 30%)
The world divides into two financial blocs: the dollar bloc (US, EU, allies) and the alternative bloc (China, Russia, BRICS). China accelerates the use of CIPS and the digital yuan; Russia shifts to settlements in roubles and yuan; BRICS creates its own payment system.

Conditions: Intensifying geopolitical tensions; tightening sanctions; activation of dedollarisation within BRICS; CIPS reaches 10–15% of global turnover.

Winners: China (strengthens yuan and CIPS), Russia (reduces dependence), BRICS countries.
Losers: US (loss of control over part of global finance), EU (caught between blocs), countries with large dollar reserves.

SCENARIO 3: Technology Alliance – Pax Silica as a New World Order (Probability 20%)
Pax Silica becomes the foundation of a new world order. The US, EU, Japan, Australia, the Netherlands, and other participants build a common technology policy: unified standards for AI, semiconductors, and critical minerals.

Conditions: Escalation of the conflict with China (Taiwan) [14][19]; the EU realises it cannot pursue an independent technological path; a USChina technology war.

Winners: US (strengthens technological leadership), EU (gains access to technology at the cost of sovereignty), Japan and Australia.
Losers: China (isolated from global supply chains), developing countries (cut off from technology), Russia.

SCENARIO 4: Crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and Global Stagflation (Probability 5%)
A blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drives oil prices to $150–200 per barrel, triggering a global recession and stagflation. Production falls and unemployment rises in all regions [7][8].

Conditions: Escalation of the USIsraelIran conflict; closure of the Strait of Hormuz for an extended period (more than 2 weeks); collapse of talks [7][8].

Losers: Everyone without exception. The heaviest blow – to China, India, Europe, Japan, South Korea.

7. Conclusion

Status Quo as of June 2026:

1. The dollar remains the dominant settlement and reserve currency. A slow decline exists, but there is no sudden abandonment.

2. Geopolitical crises strengthen the dollar. The conflict in Iran and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz have driven the dollar’s share in settlements to record levels. The dollar remains the main “safehaven asset” [2][3].

3. Alternative systems (CIPS) are growing, but remain marginal. Their volumes are significantly smaller than global SWIFT turnover [6].

4. Pax Silica is creating a new technology bloc, but the EU is a junior partner in it, while simultaneously trying to develop its own technological sovereignty [16][17].

5. Three types of security (energy, food, technology) no longer exist separately. The Strait of Hormuz is the intersection point: oil, fertilisers, and food pass through it. Pax Silica is the US’s attempt to take control of technological security through ally coordination [7][8][9][11][12][16][17][18].

Sources

[1] SWIFT – “RMB Tracker: monthly statistics and updates”, June 2026
[2] SWIFT – “Dollar share of global payments rises to 51.1% in March”, 23 April 2026
[3] The Conversation – “The world is not giving up on the US dollar”, 27 April 2026
[4] IMF COFER – “Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves”, Q1 2026
[5] XT.com – “USD’s share of global reserves falls to 56%”, 5 June 2026
[6] FXCintel – “CIPS volumes rise as China expands payments infrastructure”, 19 June 2026
[7] Elysée.fr – “G7 Leaders’ Statement on Energy Security and the Strait of Hormuz”, 17 June 2026
[8] IEA – “State of Energy Policy 2026” (June 2026)
[9] IEA – “World Energy Investment Report 2026” (May 2026)
[10] Investing.com – “The Petrodollar Isn’t Going Anywhere Soon”, 19 June 2026
[11] Chatham House – “The fifth food mega-shock in 20 years?”, 14 June 2026
[12] World Bank – “When risks stack up: Threats to global food markets in 2026”, 16 June 2026
[13] FAO – “Food security and supply chain disruptions report”, 2026
[14] Whitehouse.gov – “Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Takes Action on Certain Advanced Computing Chips”, 14 January 2026
[15] CGTN Russian – “China’s Ministry of Commerce: US export restrictions undermine global semiconductor industry”, 4 June 2026
[16] U.S. Department of State – “United States Hosts Second Pax Silica Summit in Washington, DC”, 26 June 2026
[17] The Next Web – “The EU signs up to Pax Silica, the US-led chip pact France called colonisation”, 25 June 2026
[18] G7 – “Leaders’ Declaration on Critical Minerals Supply Chains”, 17 June 2026
[19] Reuters – “Taiwan Strait tensions and semiconductor supply chain risks”, 2026