OUSD and the World: Who Will Enter the New Financial System and Who Will Be Left Outside? | SforNews Analysis

THE WORLD AND OUSD: WHO WILL ENTER, AND WHO WILL BE LEFT OUTSIDE?

Analytical Review: The Stakes for Key Countries

DISCLAIMER

This material is an analytical review prepared by the editorial board of “Kafedra” and SforNewsas part of a series on the transformation of the global financial architecture. The material is based on open data, official company statements, media publications, and analytical sources. We do not claim that our interpretation is the only correct one. We do not provide investment recommendations or calls to action. All conclusions are probabilistic in nature and based on the comparison of facts available in the public domain. We invite readers to independently verify the information and are open to dialogue. If you have access to data that could supplement or correct our picture, we are ready to accept and process it.

INTRODUCTION: NOT ALL BRIDGES LEAD TO THE SAME CITY

OUSD is not just a stablecoin. It is an infrastructural project that could become a new layer of the global financial system. Visa, Mastercard, BlackRock, Coinbase – these are not crypto startups. These are institutions that shape the rules of the game.

But its adoption will be uneven. Some countries will see it as a bridge to global liquidity. Others – as a threat to sovereignty. Still others – as an opportunity for maneuvering.

In this review, we analyze how OUSD could affect the world’s key economies. And whatstrategies they will choose.

1. RUSSIA

Status: Under sanctions. Cut off from SWIFT. Developing SPFS and the digital ruble. Actively seeking alternative settlement channels.

Interest in OUSD: High. Russia is interested in instruments for international settlements, especially with China, India, Turkey, and African and Middle Eastern countries. OUSD could become an alternative to SWIFT and dollar correspondent accounts.

Risks:

Scenario:
Russia will act on several fronts:

Probability of integration: High (attempts at use). Low (as systemic dependence).

Key question: Can Russia use OUSD as a tool to bypass sanctions without becoming a hostage to the system? Or will it create its own alternative that allows it to maintain sovereignty?

2. CHINA

Status: World’s largest economy. Developing its own digital currency – e-CNY. Actively promoting international settlements in yuan.

Interest in OUSD: Low. China sees OUSD as a competitor, not a partner. It does not want to strengthen dollar dependence. Moreover, e-CNY is a state project, while OUSD is private.

Risks: If OUSD becomes the dominant stablecoin, it could undermine China’s efforts to internationalize the yuan. China may try to create its own analogue – a stablecoin backed by a basket of BRICS currencies or gold.

Scenario: China will observe but not enter. It may create a bridge between e-CNY and OUSD at the smart contract level, but with strict restrictions. This would allow Chinese companies to interact with the global system without losing control over the domestic currency.

Probability of integration: Low (as full participation). Medium (as creating bridges with restrictions).

Key question: Can China offer the world an alternative that outweighs OUSD? Or will it beforced to adapt?

3. INDIA

Status: World’s third-largest economy by purchasing power parity. High level of digitalization. Large cryptocurrency market.

Interest in OUSD: Medium. India is interested in fast and cheap international settlements. OUSD could become a tool for remittances, which make up a significant part of the economy.

Risks: India fears dollar dependence and wants to strengthen the rupee in international settlements. However, it does not have its own digital analogue of OUSD.

Scenario: India will likely use OUSD as a tool, but not as a system. That is, companies and individuals will be able to use OUSD for international operations, but the state will not make it an official instrument. A digital rupee with a bridge to OUSD is possible.

Probability of integration: Medium (as a payment instrument). Low (as strategic dependence).

Key question: Will India be able to maintain a balance between using OUSD and strengthening the rupee? Or will it become a hostage to the system?

4. EUROPEAN UNION

Status: Largest economic bloc. MiCA has already entered into force – strict requirements for stablecoins. Developing the digital euro.

Interest in OUSD: Low. Europe wants to control stablecoins through regulation. OUSD is a private project. Europe will not ban it (if it complies with MiCA), but will not encourage it either.

Risks: If OUSD becomes the dominant stablecoin, it could undermine EU efforts to create the digital euro. European banks and companies may prefer OUSD due to its global liquidity.

Scenario: Europe will strictly regulate OUSD, requiring full reserve transparency and compliance with MiCA. It may create a bridge between the digital euro and OUSD, but with restrictions. In the long term, Europe will try to promote the digital euro as an alternative.

Probability of integration: Low (as systemic). High (as a regulated instrument).

Key question: Can Europe create a competitive alternative to OUSD? Or will it be forced tofollow the market?

5. UNITED ARAB EMIRATES (UAE) AND SAUDI ARABIA

Status: Major oil exporters. Actively diversifying their economies. Developing blockchain and cryptocurrency technologies. Dubai is one of the world’s crypto hubs.

Interest in OUSD: High. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are interested in international settlements, especially in oil trade. OUSD could become a tool for settlements with China, India, and other countries.

Risks: Dependence on a system controlled by the West. If OUSD is blocked for these countries, it will hit their economies.

Scenario: The UAE and Saudi Arabia will likely use OUSD as one of their instruments, but will not make it the basis of settlements. They will also develop alternatives: settlements in national currencies, own blockchain platforms. They may create a joint stablecoin with Russia and China.

Probability of integration: High (as a tool). Medium (as a strategic bet).

Key question: Can the Gulf countries maintain maneuverability between East and West? Or will OUSD become a point of no return for them?

6. TURKEY

Status: Major economy. High inflation. Significant cryptocurrency market.

Interest in OUSD: High. Turkey is interested in stable instruments for savings and international settlements. OUSD could become an alternative to the lira, which is losing value.

Risks: Dependence on the dollar. OUSD is a dollar, even if private. Turkey may strengthen the dollarization of its economy.

Scenario: Turkey will actively use OUSD at the private level, but the state may not make it an official instrument. Turkey may create its own stablecoin or use the digital lira.

Probability of integration: High (at the private level). Low (at the state level).

Key question: Can Turkey use OUSD to stabilize its economy without losing sovereignty?

7. BRAZIL AND LATIN AMERICAN COUNTRIES

Status: Major economies with high inflation. Significant remittance flows. Growing interest in cryptocurrencies.

Interest in OUSD: High. OUSD could become a tool for savings and international settlements, especially for remittances.

Risks: Dollarization of economies. OUSD could strengthen dependence on the dollar, undermining national currencies.

Scenario: Brazil and other Latin American countries will use OUSD as a tool, but not as a system. They may create a regional stablecoin or use digital pesos/reals with bridges.

Probability of integration: High (as a tool). Low (as a strategy).

Key question: Can Latin America use OUSD to integrate into the global economy without losing control over the money supply?

8. AFRICAN COUNTRIES (NIGERIA, KENYA, SOUTH AFRICA)

Status: Emerging markets. High level of mobile payments. Significant interest in cryptocurrencies.

Interest in OUSD: High. OUSD could become a tool for international settlements and remittances. In some countries, cryptocurrencies are already used as an alternative to national currencies.

Risks: Dependence on infrastructure controlled by the West. If OUSD is blocked, it will hit the economy.

Scenario: African countries will use OUSD as a tool, but will not make it the basis of their economies. They may create regional stablecoins or digital currencies.

Probability of integration: High (as a tool). Low (as a strategy).

Key question: Can Africa use OUSD for economic growth without becoming its hostage?

9. IRAN AND OTHER COUNTRIES UNDER SANCTIONS

Status: Under sanctions. Cut off from SWIFT. Interested in alternative settlement channels.

Interest in OUSD: Very high. OUSD could become a tool for bypassing sanctions, if it is not blocked for these countries.

Risks: OUSD is a project of the Western establishment. If the US decides that OUSD is helping Iran, it could block it.

Scenario: Iran and other countries under sanctions will try to use OUSD, but with great risk. They will also develop alternatives: barter schemes, settlements in national currencies, own stablecoins.

Probability of integration: High (attempts). Low (success).

Key question: Can OUSD become a neutral tool for countries under sanctions? Or will it be used as an instrument of pressure?

10. JAPAN AND SOUTH KOREA

Status: Developed economies. High level of technology. Active cryptocurrency markets.

Interest in OUSD: Medium. Japan and South Korea are interested in technology, but they are also concerned about control over the money supply.

Risks: Dependence on the dollar. OUSD could strengthen the dollarization of their economies.

Scenario: Japan and South Korea will use OUSD as one of their instruments, but will not make it the basis. They will also develop their own digital currencies.

Probability of integration: Medium (as a tool). Low (as a strategy).

Key question: Can Japan and South Korea maintain a balance between innovation and control?

11. UNITED KINGDOM

Status: Major financial center. London is a global cryptocurrency hub. Actively developing regulation.

Interest in OUSD: High. London wants to maintain its status as a global financial center. OUSD could become part of this strategy.

Risks: OUSD could undermine the Bank of England’s control over the money supply.

Scenario: The UK will encourage the use of OUSD, but with strict regulation. It will also develop its own digital pound.

Probability of integration: High (as a regulator and platform). Medium (as dependence).

Key question: Can the UK use OUSD to strengthen its position without losing control?

SUMMARY TABLE

Country/Region	Interest inOUSD	DependencyRisk	Strategy	Probability ofIntegration
Russia	High	Very high	Observation + digital ruble + alternatives	High (attempts)
China	Low	High	Observation + e-CNY	Low
India	Medium	Medium	Use + digital rupee	Medium
EU	Low	Medium	Regulation + digital euro	Low (systemic)
UAE/Saudi Arabia	High	Medium	Use + alternatives	High
Turkey	High	High	Private use	High (private)
Brazil/LatinAmerica	High	High	Use + regionalprojects	High (tool)
Africa	High	High	Use + regionalprojects	High (tool)
Iran/sanctionedcountries	Very high	Very high	Attempts to use + alternatives	High (attempts)
Japan/South Korea	Medium	Medium	Use + digitalcurrencies	Medium
United Kingdom	High	Medium	Regulation + digital pound	High

MAIN CONCLUSION

The world will split into three groups:

Key question: can any of the players create an alternative that outweighs OUSD? Or willeveryone be forced to integrate?

Material prepared by the editorial board of “Kafedra” and SforNews. When citing, reference to the original source is mandatory.

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Sources: RBC Crypto, Chosun (Korea), open statements from Samsung, Dunamu, K Bank, analytical materials on Ripple Labs, research “Double Issuance of Stablecoins” (2025), official Open Standard documents, data on sanctions restrictions, publications on digital currencies of various countries, IMF and Bank for International Settlements reports.