Global Energy Security Under the Strait of Hormuz Crisis — SforNews Analysis

5 Jul, 2026
| Salome K

GLOBAL ENERGY SECURITY UNDER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CRISIS

DISCLAIMER

This material represents an analytical review prepared by the editorial board of the journals “Kafedra” and SforNews based on open data. The material is informational and analytical in nature. It is not an investment recommendation or a call to action. All conclusions are probabilistic in nature.

INTRODUCTION: THE WORLD ON OIL’S NEEDLE

The Strait of Hormuz is not just a narrow channel between Iran and Oman. It is the main artery of the global economy. Approximately 20% of all oil consumed worldwide passes through it, along with about 25% of the global LNG market [7][8].

In February 2026, a conflict began between the US and Israel against Iran. By July, the situation had shifted: following the signing of a ceasefire memorandum on June 17 and a series of technical negotiations in Doha [4][10], transit through the strait partially resumed. However, it remains “intermittent, unpredictable, and not fully transparent” [7]. According to Signal, the number of tracked vessels passing through the strait increased from 1–2 per day during the conflict to 8 by July 1 (7-day moving average) [7]. Including vessels with transponders turned off, some estimates suggest up to 40 vessels pass through the strait daily [7][11].

This event did not just impact oil prices — it exposed systemic vulnerabilities across entire regions and called into question the energy security of many countries [7][8]. Below is how the Hormuz crisis has affected different regions of the world.

1. CHINA: 60% OF OIL — VIA HORMUZ

Status: World’s largest oil importer, with over 60% of supplies coming from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz [7][8].

Crisis consequences:

• Rising oil prices — every dollar per barrel increases China’s import costs by billions of dollars.

• Threat of shortage — if the strait is completely closed again, China could lose up to 60% of its supplies.

• Inflationary pressure — rising oil prices drive inflation.

• Search for alternatives — China is increasing imports via overland routes from Russia and Kazakhstan, but their capacity is limited [6].

Response: China advocates de-escalation and is receiving some Saudi oil from resumed shipments [1][5].

2. EUROPE: DEPENDENCE ON LNG FROM QATAR

Status: Europe is one of the world’s largest LNG consumers. Before the Hormuz crisis, about 20% of Europe’s LNG came from Qatar via the Strait of Hormuz [3][5].

Crisis consequences:

• Reduced LNG supplies — Qatari LNG was effectively blocked [3].

• Rising gas prices — European gas prices have increased since the start of the conflict [8].

• Growing dependence on the US — the share of US LNG in EU imports has significantly increased [4].

• Risk of winter shortages — storage facilities are only 48% full (historically low) [1][2].

• Deindustrialization — high energy prices make European industry uncompetitive [4].

Response: Europe is seeking alternative routes and accelerating its transition to renewable energy, but remains vulnerable in the short term.

3. INDIA: 70% OF OIL — VIA HORMUZ

Status: India is the world’s third-largest oil importer, with about 70% of supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz [7][8].

Crisis consequences:

• Rising import prices — higher oil costs increase the current account deficit.

• Rupee weakening — pressure on the national currency due to rising imports.

• Inflation — higher fuel prices drive inflation and hurt poorer populations.

Response: India maintains neutrality, continues to buy oil from Russia, and is receiving some resumed shipments from the Gulf [1].

4. JAPAN: 85% OF OIL — VIA HORMUZ

Status: Japan is almost entirely dependent on oil imports, with 85% of supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz [9].

Crisis consequences:

• Rising import prices — Japanese households pay more for gasoline and electricity.

• Yen weakening — the yen has fallen to its lowest level since 1986, making imports even more expensive [1].

• Inflation — after three decades of deflation, inflation has returned and is biting [1].

Response: Japan is trying to exert diplomatic pressure on the US and Iran but remains effectively a hostage to the situation.

5. SOUTH KOREA: 75% OF OIL — VIA HORMUZ

Status: South Korea is one of the world’s largest oil importers, with about 75% of supplies coming through the Strait of Hormuz [7][8].

Crisis consequences:

• Rising production costs — expensive oil makes South Korean exports less competitive.

• Inflation — rising fuel and energy prices.

• Energy security — South Korea is heavily dependent on imports.

Response: South Korea is seeking alternative routes, but they are limited.

6. UNITED STATES: WORLD’S LARGEST PRODUCER, BUT SPR IS EXPERIENCING PROBLEMS

Status: The US is the world’s largest oil producer, but its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is facing serious problems [3][6][14].

Crisis consequences:

• SPR at its lowest since 1983 — 325.7 million barrels [3][9][12].

• More than 25% of reserves are inaccessible — infrastructure is deteriorating [2][6][14].

• Extraction capacity — 61% of design capacity, injection capacity — 56% [2][6][14].

• GAO warns: due to aging infrastructure (pipelines, pumps, fire suppression systems), the SPR risks failing to meet future extraction directives [6][12][14].

• The US has already released 89 million barrels of the planned 172 million (over 50% of the volume) [9]. Remaining releases are structured as loans with an obligation to return the oil with an 18-24% premium [9].

• Restoring the SPR to full operational readiness is estimated to cost approximately $650 million [12].

Response: The US is trying to pressure Iran, but its leverage is weakened by technical problems with the SPR and falling oil prices amid partial resumption of transit [7][11].

7. MIDDLE EASTERN COUNTRIES

Status: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Kuwait, Iraq — major oil producers and exporters.

Crisis consequences:

• Resumed exports — after the ceasefire, Saudi Arabia began its largest shipments from the Gulf [1][5][11].

• Increased revenues — higher oil prices boost these countries’ incomes.

• Alternative routes — Gulf countries are building alternative pipelines and ports.

Response: Saudi Arabia is trying to maintain neutrality but is under pressure from both the US and Iran.

8. RUSSIA: A SUPPLIER, BUT WITH LIMITATIONS

Status: Russia is the world’s second-largest oil exporter. It does not depend on Hormuz, exporting via pipelines and its own ports.

Crisis consequences:

• Increased revenues — higher oil prices boost Russia’s income.

• Flow reorientation — Russia is actively redirecting exports from West to East [5].

• Sanctions restrictions — the EU is imposing its 21st sanctions package, limiting access to technology and finance [4].

Response: Russia is using the crisis to strengthen its role as a reliable supplier to Asia.

9. SHARE OF OIL FROM HORMUZ IN DIFFERENT COUNTRIES

Country	Share of oil from Hormuz
China	~60%
India	~70%
Japan	~85%
South Korea	~75%
Europe	~20% (LNG from Qatar)
US	~5-10%

10. US-IRAN NEGOTIATIONS: A KEY FACTOR OF UNCERTAINTY

Key points of the negotiation process [4][10]:

• The US and Iran are holding indirect technical negotiations in Doha (Qatar) mediated by Qatar and Pakistan [4][10].

• The Iranian delegation is led by Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi [4][10].

• The parties have agreed to establish a communication channel to monitor violations of the memorandum and report breaches [4].

• Iran insists on international recognition of its control over the strait, including the right to charge fees from vessels [4][10].

• US priority is ensuring freedom of navigation and full restoration of transit [10].

• The release of $6 billion in frozen Iranian assets in Qatar is being discussed [4][10].

• Technical negotiations are focused on strait management, while the nuclear program is not yet on the agenda [10].

MAIN CONCLUSION: HORMUZ — THE WEAK POINT OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

The Hormuz crisis has exposed the systemic vulnerability of the global energy system. Asia — China, India, Japan, and South Korea — has proven to be the most vulnerable [7][8]. Europe suffered from the blocking of Qatari LNG, but the partial resumption of transit offers hope for supply recovery [3][5][7]. The US, despite being the world’s largest producer, has proven unable to fully utilize its strategic reserve due to deteriorating infrastructure and record-low stockpiles [3][6][12][14].

The partial reopening of the strait and technical negotiations in Doha are not a solution to the problem, but merely a respite. The fundamental contradictions between the US and Iran remain unresolved [7][10][11]. The coming weeks and months will show whether the world can find a sustainable solution, or whether Hormuz will become the catalyst for a new global economic crisis.

REFERENCES

[1] Anadolu Ajansı: Saudi crude exports from Gulf hit highest since Iran war truce, 2 July 2026.

[2] Reuters: USA Strategic Petroleum Reserve Technical Problems, 1 July 2026.

[3] Investing.com: Schrödinger’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve, 2 July 2026.

[4] Vietnam.vn: Conflict in the Middle East: US-Iran open channel to monitor memorandum of understanding, 1 July 2026.

[5] Bloomberg: Saudi crude exports from Gulf hit highest since Iran war truce, 2 July 2026.

[6] U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO): Energy Security: Congress and DOE Need a Unified Plan to Align Priorities and Investments for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, GAO-26-106918, May 2026.

[7] Newsmax: Hormuz Ship Transits Quadruple as Trump Plan Works, 3 July 2026.

[8] Elysée.fr: G7 Leaders’ Statement on Energy Security and the Strait of Hormuz, 17 June 2026.

[9] Yahoo Finance: Trump to release 172 million barrels of oil to fight fuel prices, but there’s a catch, 2 July 2026.

[10] Vietnam.vn: The US and Iran have entered technical talks for a peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, 30 June 2026.

[11] Mitrade: Oil Extends Fall After Saudi Exports Surge: Why Are Bitcoin and Gold Rallying?,2 July 2026.

[12] Washington Examiner: The overused Strategic Petroleum Reserve is at risk of operational failure, watchdog warns, 26 June 2026.

[13] Pakistan Today: Oil edges higher as traders watch US-Iran peace efforts, 3 July 2026.

[14] Newswatch (Nigeria): US strategic oil reserve at risk watchdog, 2 July 2026.

The material was prepared by the editorial board of the journals “Kafedra” and SforNews based on open sources. When citing, reference to the original source is required.