Oman Under Fire: Trump’s Ultimatum, Oil, and the New Geopolitics of the Middle East | SforNews

VERON. MACRO VIEW

ULTIMATUM TO AN ALLY: WHY TRUMP IS THREATENING OMAN AND WHAT IT MEANS FOR GLOBAL ENERGY

Date: August 19, 2026

On August 17, Donald Trump made a statement that sent shockwaves through global markets. In an interview with Fox News, he promised to “bomb the s**t out of” Oman if the sultanate “gets in the way” of resolving the conflict with Iran [2][4][5].

“If Oman gets in the way, we will bomb the s**t out of them” [4].

This is not the first ultimatum to Muscat. In May, Trump had already threatened to “blow up” Oman after learning of its negotiations with Iran over control of the Strait of Hormuz [1]. Back then, it could be dismissed as an emotional outburst. Now — it is a systemic position.

And this changes everything.

THE GEOGRAPHY OF THE CONFLICT: WHY OMAN?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow chokepoint between Iran to the north and Oman to the south. Before the conflict began, about 20% of the world’s oil — roughly 17 million barrels per day — passed through it [9]. Today, the strait is effectively closed. Tankers sail without transponders, skirting Iranian patrols along Oman’s coast. This route is what allows oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar to still reach the global market [9].

Oil prices:

Oman finds itself at the centre of the conflict for three reasons.

First — geography. The strait is bounded by Iran in the north and Oman in the south. Any safe corridor requires the cooperation of both sides [1][5].

Second — mediation. Oman has served for decades as a channel of communication between Washington and Tehran [5]. The sultanate is holding parallel talks with Iran on managing shipping [1][5].

Third — Oman’s position. According to Iranian and Omani sources, the sides have reached an “understanding” on a “sea route map” [1]. Iran wants to charge fees for safe passage [1]. The US rejects any scheme involving Iranian tolls [1].

This is precisely what provoked Trump’s threat [2][5]. He cannot allow Oman — a US ally — to negotiate with Iran behind Washington’s back [5].

WHAT LIES BEHIND THE THREAT: EXPERT OPINIONS

Western analysts are unanimous: Trump’s threat is less a military ultimatum than an admission of strategic impotence.

Hasan Alhasan, Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), notes: “Trump’s frustration stems largely from the fact that Muscat pursues an independent policy towards Iran that does not always align with US preferences. Ironically, however, it is precisely this that allows Muscat to play the mediating role that Washington often relies on to facilitate contacts with Tehran” [1].

Former US Ambassador to Oman Marc Sievers called the threats “puzzling”: “Trump may not have intended his words to be taken literally, but rather wanted to get Oman’s attention — and in that, I am sure he succeeded. It is hard to imagine Admiral Cooper planning to bomb Oman” [5].

Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz warns that Trump’s repeated threats against Oman do not help the US improve relations with the Gulf states [6]. US policy in the Middle East is turning into a series of ultimatums that push away even traditional allies [6].

Trump himself said on Monday that Iran “will not make the deal I think is necessary” and called on Tehran to “raise the white flag of surrender” [4]. At the same time, he confirmed the existence of an unofficial channel of communication between Washington and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) [4]. Iran denies this.

The situation is absurd: Trump threatens to bomb an ally while simultaneously trying to strike a deal with the enemy. This is not strategy. This is panic.

ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES: NUMBERS THAT HIT HARD

Any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz is a blow to the global economy. And the numbers speak louder than any political statements.

Europe imports about 40% of its oil from the Gulf. Every $10 increase in the price per barrel adds €0.5–0.7 trillion to annual import costs. For European industry, which is already suffering from cheap imports from China, this is fatal.

China imports 70% of its oil. A $30/bbl price increase reduces its GDP by 0.8–1.0% according to Bloomberg Economics. With domestic demand slowing and deflationary pressure, this could trigger a systemic crisis.

Japan depends on energy imports for 90% of its needs. Every additional dollar per barrel adds ¥120 billion to import costs. At current prices, Japan’s trade deficit will reach ¥1.8 trillion by year-end.

Russia is in a paradoxical position: it benefits from high prices but loses from the inability to increase exports. A $20/bbl price increase adds **₽1.2 trillion** to the budget, but 80% of this gain is eaten up by the Urals discount to Brent, which in August stands at **$22/bbl** — a historic high.

The yield on 30-year US Treasury bonds reached 5.33% on August 18 — the highest level since 2007 [10][11]. Markets expect that a protracted conflict will keep energy prices elevated, forcing central banks to raise rates to curb inflation [10][11].

WHAT IS OMAN DOING?

Oman is not just “another country”. It is a sultanate with a population of 5.2 million and a GDP of $122 billion.

Oman has not publicly commented on Trump’s threats [5]. Sultan Haitham bin Tariq prefers quiet diplomacy [5]. Iran confirms that talks with Oman are “proceeding seriously” [1].

But Oman’s silence is not weakness. It is strategy. The sultanate understands: Trump cannot afford a two-front war. Threatening to bomb its own base is not just a diplomatic scandal. It isstrategic insanity [5].

WHY OMAN IS NOT IRAQ?

Oman is not Iraq in 2003. It does not have an army that could stand up to the US. Its army numbers ~50,000 troops, with a military budget of $9 billion [1]. But Oman is geography.

Oman hosts US troops and allows access to its bases [5]. Threatening to bomb the country that provides you with military facilities is not just a diplomatic scandal. It is a sign that the administration is losing control over its own allies [5].

Moreover, Trump has a luxury golf resort and development project in Oman — literally a few miles from the strait he is threatening to turn into a war zone [5]. Irony: the man threatening to bomb the country owns real estate there.

WHAT NEXT?

The 60-day memorandum between the US and Iran, signed in June, expired on August 17 without a comprehensive agreement [4]. Trump said he is “in no hurry” and is not setting new deadlines [4].

Iran, for its part, declares that the strait “belongs to Iran, now belongs to Iran, and will forever remain Iran” [3].

Three scenarios:

Scenario 1: Diplomatic. Oman continues talks with Iran, the US is forced to accept the new reality. Oil stabilises in the $90–110 range.

Scenario 2: Escalation. Trump follows through on his threat — launches pinpoint strikes on Oman. Oil rockets to $150–180/bbl. The global economy enters recession.

Scenario 3: Hybrid. The US imposes new sanctions on Oman, blocks its bank accounts, but does not strike militarily. Oman pivots to China and Russia. US influence in the region collapses completely.

CONCLUSION

Trump made a statement that looks like a crude threat. But behind it lies real concern: Oman is reassessing its relations with the US and negotiating with Iran behind Washington’s back [1][2][5].

The numbers speak for themselves:

The world remains in a zone of turbulence. Three points of tension: Oman, the digital ruble, Iran. All are linked by one theme — control over resources and identity.

Oman will not go to war with the US. It will not resist openly. It will simply continue its projects — quietly, without fanfare, but to its own benefit [5].

And if Oman succeeds in creating an alternative route independent of Hormuz [9] — Trump will have to negotiate. Or bomb [4].

The latter is unlikely. But with Trump, anything is possible [5].

VERON. A diagnosis of reality without illusions.

This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Material prepared based on open data and international expert commentary.

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