Metals Market 2026: Steel, Critical Minerals & Russia–Indonesia Axis

METALS MARKET IN 2026: THE MAP IS BEING REDRAWN

The metals market in 2026 is a classic example of the gap between the map and the territory. The map (global prices, forecasts, trade policies) shows growth and redistribution of flows. The territory (real supply, demand, logistics, geopolitics) lives its own life, creating divergent trends.

PART 1. STEEL: AMERICA RISES, ASIA FALLS, RUSSIA AT ITS PEAK

Global picture: three speeds

The hot-rolled coil (HRC) market demonstrates a pronounced “three-speed” dynamic:

• USA — prices hold at $1,120–1,190 per ton, remaining the highest in the world. Reasons: limited supply, strong demand from automotive and energy sectors, and high import duties that block cheap imports.

• Europe — prices fluctuate around €680 per ton. New import quotas and the CBAM mechanism support prices, but weak demand from automotive and construction sectors prevents growth.

• Asia — prices in the **$490–500 per ton** range. China pressures the market with excess supply, while the rainy season weakens construction demand. Vietnamese producers have already begun lowering prices for July–August by $13–15 per ton.

Russia: export peak and internal uncertainty

Prices for Russian hot-rolled coil at Black Sea ports exceeded $550 per ton — the highest since August 2024. Year-on–year growth reached 22.5%.

Reasons:

But the sustainability of this growth is questionable:

Factor	Risk
China	Chinese producers have already begun lowering export prices, which could crash the market
Turkey	Demand is weakening, Turkish buyers are unwilling to pay above $515–520 per ton
Reorientation	Some steelmakers are moving to Iran via the Caspian Sea, where prices are higher

The consolidated metal trade price index in Russia for the week of July 2–9 rose by 2.94% (to 904.2 points). However, export prices for billet have already begun to decline: under pressure from Turkish and Asian producers, Russian mills were forced to drop prices by $4–5 per ton when exporting through Novorossiysk.

Architectural conclusion: The steel market is fragmented. The USA is an island of expensive metal, Asia is a zone of overproduction, Russia is a “hub” with a temporary logistics advantage. The question is not “will prices rise?” The question is “how long will the logistics premium last, and what happens when China returns to export markets?”

PART 2. CRITICAL MINERALS: THE MARKET OF THE FUTURE

Demand for critical minerals (lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, rare earth elements) will grow exponentially. Demand for lithium by 2040 will increase by 353%, for graphite — by 131%.

Supply concentration — the main risk:

• Cobalt — 74% of global production in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

• Nickel — 67% of production in Indonesia.

• Rare earth metals — 69% of production in China.

• Processing — China dominates lithium, cobalt, and rare earth processing; Indonesia controls 43% of nickel processing.

Geopolitics and trade restrictions — since 2020, countries have introduced about 100 new export measures on critical minerals: licensing requirements, export taxes, bans, and quotas. Exporting countries seek to retain value-added domestically, while importing countries aim to diversify sources.

PART 3. RUSSIA–INDONESIA: A NEW AXIS IN THE MINERALS WORLD

Indonesia has proposed cooperation with Russia in nickel and cobalt processing. Indonesia’s Minister of Industry Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita stated: “Russia possesses world-class high competencies in metals technology and processing.”

What this means:

• Indonesia wants to transition from a raw material model to deep domestic processing (the “Golden Indonesia 2045” strategy).

• Russia can act not just as a commodity supplier, but as a technological partner — designing and building smelting facilities, supplying equipment.

• This opens access to the ASEAN market (650 million people).

Risks: infrastructure, energy supply, logistics, currency risks, local legislation, environmental regulations.

Architectural conclusion: The map (announcements, memoranda) shows a new axis of cooperation. The territory (project implementation, financing, construction) — is only just being formed. Russia gains a chance to become a technological partner, but this requires time and investment.

SUMMARY: ARCHITECTURAL PICTURE OF THE METALS MARKET

Market	Map (official)	Territory (real)
Steel	Russian export price growth to $550/t	Growth is unstable — China pressures, Turkey bargains, reorientation to Iran
Criticalminerals	Lithium demand +353% by 2040, 100+ export measures	Supply concentration (China, Indonesia, Congo) creates supply chain risks
Russia–Indonesia	New strategic partnership	Implementation requires time and investment

THE MAIN CONCLUSION

The metals world is fragmenting. Steel — in three different realities (US expensive, Europe stable, Asia cheap). Critical minerals — under pressure from geopolitics and trade restrictions. Russia is playing two games: in the steel market as a temporary beneficiary of the logistics premium, and in the critical minerals market as a potential technological partner.

The question is not “will steel become more expensive?” The question is “can Russia use the current environment for a long-term transition from commodity exports to technology and processing exports?”

Material prepared by the editorial boards of Kafedra and SforNews magazines.
Analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation.