Veron. Macroview. Issue No. 9: Diesel for Elections, Oil for Partners — What the Trump Family Gets from Two Deals with Moscow

VERON. MACROVIEW. ISSUE No. 9
DIESEL FOR ELECTIONS, OIL FOR PARTNERS: WHAT THE TRUMP FAMILY GETS FROM TWO DEALS WITH MOSCOW
In one week, Washington and Moscow pulled off two deals that look separate but grow from the same negotiating table. On October 9, after a call with Putin, Trump announced that Russia would supply diesel: 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 tons in November, then a million per month. The US Treasury issued a license the same day that removes Russian diesel from American sanctions until April 7, 2027. In parallel, they are pushing through the sale of LUKOIL’s foreign empire for $20 billion. The license for these assets expires on October 22.
This is not just news. This is a diagnosis. And it changes the map of the world.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
The consortium buying LUKOIL is led by Todd Boehly, co-owner of the Los Angeles Dodgers. According to the New York Times, in December 2025 he gave $1 million to MAGA Inc., which supports Trump, and another $1 million through his Eldridge Industries for his inauguration. About 15% will go to the American state through the DFC corporation, and at the first stage without any investment. And more than half of the capital, according to NYT, will go to investors from the Middle East.
And this is where the family comes in. The first are Qatari billionaires of Syrian origin, Mutaz and Ramez al-Khayat. Both were at Trump’s inauguration. Together with Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump, they created a partnership that finances a multi-billion-dollar luxury resort in southern Albania; this year Ramez met with Ivanka on this project. The second is the fund of the brother of the President of the UAE, Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed. Another fund he controls bought $2 billion in cryptocurrency from World Liberty, a crypto company in which Trump’s sons participate. According to NYT, last year World Liberty brought Trump $799 million. And the Lunate fund, which Tahnoun helps oversee, is among the largest shareholders of Kushner’s investment firm.
At the same time, Kushner himself, together with Witkoff, according to an administration representative, directly discussed the financial terms of the US government’s participation in the deal. It was at their meeting with Putin on September 5, according to NYT, that Putin himself proposed discussing it. Officially, Washington says Kushner and Witkoff have nothing to do with the purchase, and NYT stipulates that there are no signs of their personal profit. But among the buyers are their business partners.
Where does diesel come in. It is the same trade, just from the other side of the counter. The price of diesel in the US in September reached a record $6.53 per gallon, less than three weeks before the midterm elections on November 3, Trump’s approval rating is 35%. According to The Sunday Times, Russian diesel will lower the price by at most 10 cents: 300,000 tons is about 18 hours of American transport consumption. Economist Sergey Vakulenko believes that Russia’s real benefit is $30–40 per ton, that is, tens of millions of dollars per month, and it goes mainly to companies, not the budget. Russia will not receive the money for LUKOIL at all: until sanctions are lifted, it will sit in blocked accounts.
THE LOGIC OF THE SYSTEM
It turns out to be an exchange where each side pays not with what it says out loud.
Trump gets the picture of “I lowered prices” before the elections. His circle and the business partners of his family get oil fields, thousands of gas stations, and refineries in Bulgaria, Romania, and the Netherlands. Analyst Boris Aronshtein values these assets at $50–60 billion, meaning they appear to be selling at a huge discount. Russia, in turn, gets a sanctions license for diesel and a seat at the negotiating table on Ukraine, and pays with LUKOIL’s empire, the money for which it will not receive.
Diesel has become the public part of the deal, the one that can be shown to voters. The non-public part is who exactly will sit on the board of directors of the former LUKOIL. The answer will become clear by October 22.
WHY THIS MATTERS FOR THE WORLD SYSTEM
First. The public deal is for the crowd. The non-public one is for the system. Everyone sees diesel. Only a few see LUKOIL. And this is not an accident. This is architecture.
Second. The family and partners get the assets. Not the “US state.” Not the “American people.” But specific people tied to specific interests. This is not “sanctions.” This is redistribution.
Third. Russia pays with assets and gets a license. The license is temporary. The assets are forever. This is not a “deal.” This is an exchange where one side gets paper and the other gets land.
Fourth. Ukraine is not at the center. Ukraine is on the periphery. The whole game is about assets. Not about “peace.” And this is the key to understanding.
NEW ELEMENT: THE FAMILY AS AN ARCHITECTURAL ELEMENT
It is telling that against the backdrop of this deal, the global system is demonstrating structural changes:
Kushner is returning. After Trump’s victory, his possible return to Middle East diplomacy is being discussed. And here he is already discussing the financial terms of the deal with Putin.
World Liberty brought Trump $799 million. This is not a “side effect.” This is a business model.
The Lunate fund is among the largest shareholders of Kushner’s investment firm. This is not a “coincidence.” This is a circuit.
The al-Khayats finance a resort with Ivanka Trump. This is not an “investment.” This is a partnership.
The DFC gets 15% without investment. This is not a “state share.” This is a gift.
These are not coincidences. This is architecture. In a world where family is a circuit and partners are assets, deals cease to be “state” deals. They become “family” deals. And this is the new norm.
RISKS THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED
Loss of control. If the deal goes through the family and partners, control is lost. The state gets 15%. Partners get more than half. And this is not “transparency.” This is shadow.
Erosion of trust. Allies begin to doubt. Opponents begin to exploit. If the US sells sanctioned assets to partners of the family, then sanctions cease to be a “tool.” They become a “commodity.”
Information war. Diesel is a picture. LUKOIL is territory. And whoever sees only the picture loses. Whoever sees the territory gains the advantage.
Political smokescreen. While some say “we lowered prices,” others get assets. This is not “politics.” This is a bet. And the bet is not on us.
Existential risk. If deals become “family” deals, the system loses control. And a system that does not control its assets is doomed.
Economic destruction. Diesel devalues trust. Trust devalues capital. Capital seeks an asset that cannot be counterfeited. Bitcoin, gold, energy, food. Everything else is a matter of trust. And trust in systems is falling.
ARCHITECTURAL CONCLUSION
First. Diesel is the public part. LUKOIL is the non-public part. And whoever sees only diesel sees the map. And whoever sees LUKOIL sees the territory.
Second. Family is a circuit. Partners are assets. And deals cease to be “state” deals. They become “family” deals.
Third. Russia pays with assets and gets a license. The license is temporary. The assets are forever. This is not a “deal.” This is an exchange where one side gets paper and the other gets land.
Fourth. Ukraine is not at the center. Ukraine is on the periphery. The whole game is about assets. Not about “peace.”
Fifth. The answer will become clear by October 22. Who will sit on the board of the former LUKOIL. And that is when the map becomes territory.
Sixth. The winner is not the one who shouts loudest. The winner is the one who sees the architecture. And for that, you need to look not at events, but at the system. Not at statements, but at actions. Not at charts, but at physics.
Seventh. We stand on the threshold of a new world. In it, there will be no old guarantees. No old institutions. No old money. There will be new circuits. And whoever sees them first will gain the advantage. Whoever continues to look at the old maps will lose.
VERON. Diagnostics of reality without illusions.
Analytics are informational in nature and do not constitute investment advice. The material was prepared on the basis of open data and comments from international experts.
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KEY FACTS
October 9, 2026 — Trump announced supplies of Russian diesel: 300,000 tons immediately, 500,000 in November, then a million per month.
October 9, 2026 — The US Treasury issued a license removing Russian diesel from sanctions until April 7, 2027.
October 22, 2026 — the license for LUKOIL assets expires.
$20 billion — the estimated sale price of LUKOIL’s foreign empire.
$50–60 billion — valuation of LUKOIL assets by analyst Boris Aronshtein.
15% — the share of the American state through the DFC (without investment).
More than half of the capital — investors from the Middle East.
$1 million — Todd Boehly’s contribution to MAGA Inc. in December 2025.
$1 million — contribution through Eldridge Industries for Trump’s inauguration.
$799 million — World Liberty’s profit for Trump last year.
$2 billion — purchase of cryptocurrency by Sheikh Tahnoun’s fund from World Liberty.
$6.53 — record diesel price in the US in September.
35% — Trump’s approval rating before the elections.
November 3, 2026 — midterm elections in the US.
September 5, 2026 — meeting of Kushner and Witkoff with Putin, where Putin proposed discussing the deal.
Sergey Vakulenko — assessment of Russia’s real benefit: $30–40 per ton.
The Sunday Times — assessment of diesel price reduction: at most 10 cents.
300,000 tons — about 18 hours of American transport consumption.